Replication Data for: How Much Will Health Coverage Cost? Future Health Spending Scenarios in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico

As Latin American countries seek to expand the coverage and benefits provided by their health systems under a global drive for universal health coverage (UHC), decisions taken today –whether by government or individuals- will have an impact tomorrow on public spending requirements. To understand the implications of these decisions and define needed policy reforms, this paper calculates long-term projections for public spending on health in three countries, analyzing different scenarios related to population, risk factors, labor market participation, and technological growth. In addition, the paper simulates the effects of different policy options and their potential knock-on effects on health expenditure. Without reforms aimed at expanding policies and programs to prevent disease and enhancing the efficiency of health systems, we find that health spending will likely grow considerably in the not-distant future. These projected increases in health spending may not be a critical situation if revenues and productivity of other areas of the economy maintain their historical trends. However, if revenues do not continue to grow, keeping the share of GDP spent on health constant despite growing demand will certainly affect the quality of and access to health services. Long-term fiscal projections are an essential component of planning for sustainable expansions of health coverage in Latin America.在全球推进全民健康覆盖（Universal Health Coverage, UHC）的浪潮下，拉丁美洲各国正致力于扩大本国医疗体系的覆盖范围与保障效益。如今无论由政府还是个人做出的决策，都将在未来对公共医疗支出需求产生影响。 为明晰此类决策的潜在影响并明确亟需推进的政策改革方向，本研究对三个国家的公共医疗支出开展长期预测，并围绕人口结构、健康风险因素、劳动力市场参与度以及技术发展等维度构建多种情景展开分析。此外，本研究还模拟了不同政策选项的实施效果，及其对医疗开支可能产生的连锁反应。 若不推行旨在扩大疾病预防政策与项目、提升医疗体系运行效率的改革，我们预测公共医疗支出将在不远的未来出现大幅增长。若经济其他领域的收入与生产率能够维持历史增长趋势，此类预测中的医疗支出增幅或许不会引发严重问题。但倘若收入无法持续增长，即便医疗需求不断攀升仍要维持医疗支出占GDP的比重不变，无疑将对医疗服务的质量与可及性造成负面影响。 长期财政预测是拉丁美洲地区推进医疗保障可持续扩张规划的核心组成部分。