Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI): Improving Storm Readiness through Severity and Social Impact Forecasting

This data includes focus group transcripts and survey data related to the “Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI): Improving Storm Readiness through Severity and Social Impact Forecasting” Project. This project was funded by a $244,044 grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (NA20OAR4590355) to advance social science research work around the WSSI. The grant supported a three-year (09-01-2020 to 08-31-2023) mixed-methods social science research study. Working with National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC), and Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) as testing site partners, the research team used situation-based virtual focus groups, surveys and interviews to elicit feedback from users, including WFO partners and professionals (emergency managers, transportation depts., utilities, hospitals, schools, aviation industry, and others), about WSSI, how it would be used in decision-making and how its presentation could be improved to be more useful. The project, which advanced a preliminary initial survey of WSSI that established its need, provided a more detailed analysis of product design and delivery to optimize its utility in operational environments for internal and external users. Methods included two rounds of virtual focus groups in six diverse regions of the continental United States, pre and post focus group session surveys, a third round of testing via an online survey to all previous participants, and inclusion in the Weather Prediction Center’s Hydrometeorological Testbed Winter Weather Experiment. Two-hour focus groups were held with professional stakeholders in six Weather Forecast Office areas: Grand Rapids, MI; San Joaquin/Hanford, CA; Jackson, MS; Boston, MA; Omaha, NE; Boulder, CO. Also included were a virtual focus group for forecasters throughout the CONUS (one in round one and one in round two), a virtual focus group with industry-specific groups (round one only), and a virtual focus group with personnel from WPC and NWS Headquarters (round one only). During each focus group session, participants completed a pre-session survey about winter storm experience, challenges, and demographic information. Specifically, the survey asked questions such as “what are the most significant community or social impacts of winter weather events in your area?”, “how do you use and access NWS winter weather information?”, and “if you learn a significant winter event is approaching, what do you typically do with that information?”. Then participants were led through a winter storm scenario via a presentation showcasing the WSSI as it is commonly used within the local WFO – i.e., as part of briefing packages or weekly partner emails – to test the current format and delivery. The facilitator asked questions about the types of decisions the users make and how the users have or might engage with WSSI in their decision-making processes. Following the focus group discussion, participants completed a post-session survey asking for detailed feedback on the design of the products, as well as the ways they would share the information provided in the WSSI. Specific questions included “what is the biggest barrier you face in responding to and/or preparing for winter storm events?” and “what else would be important for us to know about how you gather information about winter weather risks and your intended actions?”. Round Two focus groups showed the same scenario but with revised WSSI products (revisions were informed by Round One findings). The introduction of an impact-based product presents a new model for winter weather forecast communication. The process of iterative testing, revision, and retesting produced an evolving understanding of how users can and should best receive impact-based winter storm information. The research team, including Rachel Hogan Carr, Dr. Kathryn Semmens, Keri Maxfield (all of Nurture Nature Center) and Dr. Burrell Montz (emeritus from East Carolina University), has compiled a series of recommendations to NOAA about the best ways to use and improve upon these products to communicate winter storm impact.