共享社会经济路径（SSPs）数据库V1.1

共享社会经济路径（SSPs）人口和经济格点化数据库，基于最新的经济和人口普查及逐年统计年鉴，率定人口-发展-环境分析(PDE)模型中的人口生育率、死亡率、迁移率、教育水平等参数和柯布道格拉斯（Cobb-Douglas）经济模型中的劳动力投入量、资本存量及全要素生产率，采用IPCC 发布的5种共享社会经济路径，开展了2011-2100 年中国31 个省( 区、市) 人口和国内生产总值的预估。另外，根据中国各省历史时期的城乡人口的生育率、死亡率和迁移率等特征，基于 SSPs 路径框架，分别制定未来不同路径下的城市和农村人口的本地化参数方案，在考虑农村人口和城市人口各自发展特征的基础上，预估中国31 个省（区、市）的城市和农村人口变化。并基于中国国内生产总值核算历史资料、2010年人口普查数据及历次各省统计年鉴，设定柯布-道格拉斯经济预测模型的参数，预估了中国31个省（区、市）分产业产值时空分布特征。并结合“一带一路”沿线国家和全球各国的人口和经济数据，建立了共享社会经济路径下一带一路”和全球人口经济发展情景格点化数据库。数据为.xlsx和.acs格式，时间分辨率为逐年，事件跨度为2020-2100年，其中，全球、“一带一路”沿线国家的中国城市和农村的人口和GDP预估数据水平空间分辨率为0.5°，中国区域第一、第二和第三产业产值格点预估数据分辨率约5’。本套数据能够提高气候变化对自然、人类和管理系统的影响和关键风险评估水平，促进气候变化科学基础、影响、风险、适应和减缓研究。

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) gridded population and economic database: Based on the latest economic and population censuses and annual statistical yearbooks, this study calibrated parameters such as fertility rate, mortality rate, migration rate and educational attainment in the Population-Development-Environment (PDE) model, as well as labor input, capital stock and total factor productivity (TFP) in the Cobb-Douglas economic model. Using the five SSPs released by the IPCC, we projected the population and gross domestic product (GDP) of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) in China from 2011 to 2100. In addition, based on the historical characteristics of fertility, mortality and migration rates of urban and rural populations in each Chinese province, and under the SSPs framework, localized parameter schemes for urban and rural populations under different future pathways were formulated respectively. On the basis of considering the respective development characteristics of rural and urban populations, we projected the changes of urban and rural populations in China's 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities). Based on the historical GDP accounting data of China, the 2010 population census data and previous provincial statistical yearbooks, we set the parameters of the Cobb-Douglas economic forecasting model, and projected the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of the output values of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries of China's 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities). Combined with the population and economic data of countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and global countries, we established a gridded database of population and economic development scenarios for the BRI and the world under the SSPs framework. The data are available in .xlsx and .acs formats, with an annual temporal resolution, covering the period from 2020 to 2100. Specifically, the spatial resolution of the projected population and GDP data of urban and rural areas in China, as well as those of BRI countries and global countries, is 0.5°; the spatial resolution of the gridded projected output values of the three major industries in China is approximately 5 arcminutes. This dataset can improve the assessment of the impacts of climate change on natural, human and management systems and key risks, and promote research on the scientific basis, impacts, risks, adaptation and mitigation of climate change.

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集是基于共享社会经济路径（SSPs）框架，预估2011-2100年中国及全球人口和经济的格点化数据库，涵盖人口、GDP和分产业产值，时间分辨率为逐年，空间分辨率精细。其特点在于结合了本地化参数和多种社会经济模型，旨在提升气候变化影响和风险评估的科学基础。