Deliverable 02 | CT-EX2023D869221-101 | Spatial maps of climate-driven risk to European forests

Projected biomass loss in European forests due to fires, windthrows, and insect outbreaks are generated by integrating machine learning models of forest disturbances with current forest structure and projected climate. Forest structural variables are derived from Earth observations, whereas future climate is based on EURO-CORDEX experiments under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Simulated risk are provided for the 1981-2100 period at 0.1° spatial resolution and expressed in terms of tons of biomass loss per hectare. The folders "fire", "wind", and "insect" contain maps of annual risk estimates caused by projected fires, windthrows, and insect outbreaks, respectively.
Machine learning models are based on the following studies:
- Forzieri, G. et al. Emergent vulnerability to climate-driven disturbances in European forests. Nature Communications 12, (2021).
- Forzieri, G. et al. Ecosystem heterogeneity is key to limiting the increasing climate-driven risks to European forests. One Earth (2024)