Spatial determinants and underlying drivers of land-use transitions in European Russia from 1770 to 2010

Historic land-use and land-cover data are important inputs for assessing the impacts of human activity on the environment. Our goal was to reconstruct land-cover change from 1770 to 2010 and to evaluate its spatial determinants and underlying drivers for three study sites in diverse agroecological settings in Ryazan province in European Russia. We used historic maps and statistics as well as satellite imagery to reconstruct land-cover change and categorize it into six distinct land-management regimes. We applied spatially-explicit logistic regressions to assess which spatial determinants have had the strongest influences on land cover and how these influences have changed over time. Our results show how long-term land-cover trajectories can be modulated by broad political and economic alterations, rather than through gradual and local demand-side pressures from a rising population density and an increasing local demand for agricultural commodities.