Data and code for: Sea level rise causes shorebird population collapse before habitat drowns

Sea level rise causes habitat loss and is considered to be a key
threat to coastal species globally. Sea level rise also reduces habitat
quality, potentially threatening populations already before habitat drowns
and is lost. The extent and timing of changes in habitat quality for
wildlife actively adapting to sea level rise, and how this affects
population numbers under different emission scenarios, is unknown. Here,
we combine long-term field data with models of sea level rise, marsh
geomorphology, adaptive behaviour, and population dynamics to show that
habitat quality is already declining on three islands due to increased
flooding of shorebird nests. Also, population collapses are projected well
before habitat drowns. Habitat loss, a widely used proxy, thus severely
underestimates population impacts of sea level rise and coastal species
will suffer much sooner than previously thought. Despite shorebirds
adapting by moving to higher grounds, sea level rise will result in up to
79% fewer birds in a century, eventually leading to extinction in their
prime habitat. Local gas mining exacerbates matters, as deep soil
subsidence makes habitat even more vulnerable to sea level rise,
effectively halving the window of opportunity for conservation action.
Climate change ultimately jeopardizes the biodiversity value of this
UNESCO World Heritage Area, and nature management needs to take this
long-term perspective on board by in the short-term, boosting the
accretion of tidal marshes or developing flood-safe alternative habitat
elsewhere.