The Irreplaceable Utility of Sequential Data Assimilation for Numerical Weather Prediction System Development: Lessons Learned from an Experimental HWRF System Weather and Forecasting

Limited-area numerical weather prediction models currently run operationally in the United States and follow a “partially cycled” schedule, where sequential data assimilation is periodically interrupted by replacing model states with solutions interpolated from a global model. While this strategy helps overcome several practical challenges associated with real-time regional forecasting, it is no substitute for a robust sequential data assimilation approach for research-to-operations purposes. Partial cycling can mask systematic errors in weather models, data assimilation systems, and data preprocessing techniques, since it introduces information from a different prediction system. It also adds extra heuristics to the model initialization steps outside the general Bayesian filtering framework from which data assimilation methods are derived. This study uses a research-oriented modeling system, which is self-contained in the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model package, to illustrate why next-generation modeling systems should prioritize sequential data assimilation at early stages of development. This framework permits the rigorous examination of all model system components—in a manner that has never been done for the HWRF Model. Examples presented in this manuscript show how sequential data assimilation capabilities can accelerate model advancements and increase academic involvement in operational forecasting systems at a time when the United States is developing a new hurricane forecasting system.