Assessment of risk and vulnerability to disasters by field protocols and classification trees: an analysis of the Municipal Risk Reduction Plans (MRRP) of São Bernardo do Campo and Franco da Rocha (2020-2021), in Brazil

Most disaster risk assessment methodologies were developed by natural science professionals. The UN Sendai Framework confirms the need to include these methods as interweaving complex networks of socially vulnerable financial processes, especially in developing countries. This work aimed to analyze the experience of including social vulnerability information in field protocols of the Municipal Risk Reduction Plans (MRRP) of São Bernardo do Campo and Franco da Rocha (2020-2021). A georeferenced database was structured with data from field protocols on risk sectors and then the relationship between vulnerability and risk was analyzed using the classification tree method. The results show that the geotechnical and social vulnerability variables relevant to risk attribution are largely overlapping over the sectors, but that the integrated analysis of the two dimensions allows a better interpretation of the risk level. However, the models with information from field protocols cannot replace a broader holistic assessment by the specialist in the field. Finally, qualitative reflections are made on the limitations and potential of including aspects of vulnerability in the specific case study.