Efficacy of visual surveys for white-nose syndrome at bat hibernacula

White-Nose Syndrome (WNS) is an epizootic disease in hibernating bats caused by the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans. Surveillance for P. destructans at bat hibernacula consists primarily of visual surveys of bats, collection of potentially infected bats, and submission of these bats for laboratory testing. Cryptic infections (bats that are infected but display no visual signs of fungus) could lead to the mischaracterization of the infection status of a site and the inadvertent spread of P. destructans. We determined the efficacy of visual detection of P. destructans by examining visual signs and molecular detection of P. destructans on 928 bats of six species at 27 sites during surveys conducted from January through March in 2012–2014 in the southeastern USA on the leading edge of the disease invasion. Cryptic infections were widespread with 77% of bats that tested positive by qPCR showing no visible signs of infection. The probability of exhibiting visual signs of infection increas...