Data and code from: Developing transfer functions for impact-abundance relationships in defoliating geometrid moths

The outbreak regimes of forest insects are altered by climate change. This
accentuates the need for a quantitative understanding of the relationship
between insect abundance and host plant impact, and for tools which permit
impact monitoring across large areas. We developed three transfer
functions that link ground-based larval density estimates of three severe
forest pests (Epirrita autumnata, Operophtera brumata, Agriopis
aurantiaria), field-estimated crown defoliation, and a satellite proxy of
defoliation (MODIS NDVI anomaly) in subarctic mountain birch forests in
northern Norway. We combined long-term larval counts from 274 stations at
18 localities (9–23 years) with a one-year (2014) survey of tree-level
defoliation at 90 stations and pixel-wise NDVI anomalies (2000–2023).
Transfer functions were developed using mixed-effects models. Transfer
function 1 (TF1) showed a strong, saturating increase of defoliation with
larval density (marginal R² = 0.76; conditional R² = 0.84),
reaching ~80–90% defoliation at high densities. Transfer function
2 (TF2) revealed a negative linear relationship (slope −0.07 NDVI anomaly
per 1% defoliation; R²m = 0.34; R²c = 0.65). Transfer function 3 (TF3)
identified a detection threshold at 26.4 larvae per station (95% CI
18.8–36.9): below this, NDVI anomalies were insensitive to changes in
larval density; above this, anomalies declined steeply, with substantial
location-specific variation (breakpoints 14.8–56.7 larvae/station).
Together, these transfer functions provide operational links between
established abundance monitoring and satellite-based impact mapping,
define detection limits for remote sensing, and enable reconstruction and
forecasting of outbreak impacts. We outline avenues to further improve
sensitivity using higher-resolution sensors and repeated field
calibration.