Patterns in avian reproduction in the Prudhoe Bay Oilfield, Alaska, 2003–2019

The Arctic Coastal Plain is one of the most important avian breeding
grounds in the world; however, many species are in decline.
Arctic-breeding birds contend with short breeding seasons, harsh climatic
conditions, and now, rapidly changing, variable, and unpredictable
environmental conditions caused by climate change. Additionally, those
breeding in industrial areas may be impacted by human activities. It is
difficult to separate the impacts of industrial development and climate
change, however, long-term datasets can help show patterns over time. We
evaluated factors influencing reproductive parameters of breeding birds at
Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, 2003–2019, by monitoring 1265 shorebird nests, 378
passerine nests, and 231 waterfowl nests. We found that nest survival
decreased significantly nearer high-use infrastructure for all guilds.
Temporally, passerine nest survival declined across the 17 years of the
study, while there was no significant evidence of change in their nest
density. Shorebird nest survival did not vary significantly across years,
nor did nest density. Waterfowl nest density increased over the course of
the study, but we could not estimate nest survival in all years. Egg
predator populations varied across time; numbers of gulls and ravens
increased in the oilfields from 2003–2019, while Arctic fox decreased, and
jaeger numbers did not vary significantly. Long-term datasets are rare in
the Arctic, but they are crucial for understanding impacts to breeding
birds from both climate change and increasing anthropogenic activities. We
show that nest survival was lower for birds nesting closer to high-use
infrastructure in Arctic Alaska, which was not detected in earlier,
shorter-term studies. Additionally, we show that Lapland longspur nest
survival decreased across time, which is concerning considering the
continent-wide declines in many passerine species. The urgency to
understand these relationships cannot be expressed strongly enough, given
change is continuing to happen and the potential impacts are large.