Optimizing coordination and trade-offs between food security and biodiversity conservation goals

Balancing food security and biodiversity conservation—two often
conflicting objectives—is essential for achieving global goals (e.g., SDG
2 and 15; GBF Targets 1, 3, and 10). While previous studies have explored
global or national-level trade-offs, there is a lack of spatially
explicit, scenario-based planning frameworks at regional scales to
reconcile cropland expansion and biodiversity conservation. The study
develops a multi-objective spatial planning framework to assess how future
cropland expansion may be optimized to reduce biodiversity impacts while
ensuring food security in the northwestern dry geo-eco region of China.
Using a random forest model trained with environmental, socio-economic and
trend variables to project cropland expansion from 2020 to 2030 and
identify areas of spatial conflict with biodiversity priority regions.
Results reveal intense conflicts in ecologically sensitive areas such as
the Altai and Tianshan Mountains. Under a food-security-first scenario,
expanding 300,000 km² of cropland would result in 167,978 km² of conflict
areas and a 12.20% habitat loss rate. In contrast, a biodiversity-priority
scenario achieves only 199,782 km² of cropland expansion, reducing habitat
loss to 2.39%. A trade-off coordination scenario offers an optimized
balance, enabling 300,000 km² of cropland expansion while protecting 30%
of biodiversity priority areas and limiting habitat loss to 3.52%. This
study highlights a novel framework for integrating food security and
biodiversity conservation, offering spatially explicit strategies to
support region-specific sustainable land-use planning.