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This article offers a comparison of sociopolitical instability forecasting systems. It compares systematically their efficiency by correlating their predictions for particular years with actual levels of destabilization in the respective years. It is demonstrated that the predictive capacity of those systems dropped dramatically after 2011. This is shown to be connected with the fact that the Arab Spring in 2011 acted as a trigger for a global phase transition, resulting in the World System making a transition to a qualitatively new phase, with the emergence of new patterns that are not taken into account by forecasting systems developed before its beginning.

本文对比分析了社会政治不稳定预测系统。文章通过系统地关联特定年份的预测结果与当年实际的不稳定程度，对其效率进行了比较。研究表明，自2011年以来，这些系统的预测能力急剧下降。这一现象与2011年阿拉伯之春充当全球阶段转换的触发因素有关，导致世界体系进入了一个全新的质变阶段，涌现出预测系统在阿拉伯之春开始前尚未考虑的新模式。