Data from: Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate

Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO2. However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically-induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification.海洋变暖、海洋酸化、海水脱氧及生产力下降，被广泛视为二氧化碳排放诱导海洋生态系统面临的主要胁迫因子。然而，气候变化驱动下的海洋环流变化是一项长期被忽视的胁迫因素。学界已观测到西边界流（western boundary currents）的强度与位置发生显著改变，此类变化对生态系统的影响正逐步显现。本研究依托IPCC典型浓度路径8.5（RCP 8.5, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5）情景下运行的高分辨率全球海洋模式，探讨全球尺度上气候变化诱导的海洋环流变化——此类变化与栖息于全球陆架生态系统的物种的繁殖体扩散密切相关。该模式采用0.25°的空间分辨率，相较于现有CMIP5级耦合模式（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5），其对海洋环流的区域模拟真实性得到显著提升。本研究采用由模拟海洋环流驱动的拉格朗日方法（Lagrangian approach），对浮游生物生活史阶段的扩散环流路径开展模拟。基于轨迹回溯分析，本研究明确了当前全球沿海区域的海岸滞留现象、优势流场与扩散范围。通过未来情景投影，本研究锁定了环流变化最显著的区域，并展示了其优势流路径发生最显著调整的典型区域案例。与海洋变暖或海洋酸化类似，气候变化诱导的海洋环流变化应被视作海洋生态系统面临的又一重要胁迫因素。