Using Bayesian Age-Structured-Analysis (ASA) Model for Herring Population Dynamics in Prince William Sound, EVOS Herring Program

These data are part of the Herring Program of the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council, project numbers 13120111-Q, 14120111-Q, and 16120111-Q, which is a multi-faceted study to determine why herring populations in Prince William Sound remain depressed since the early 1990s. One of the main goals of the Herring Program is to improve the ability to predict herring populations through research and monitoring. This dataset involves the development of a modified version of the age-structure-analysis (ASA) model currently used by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) to predict herring biomass levels in Prince William Sound. This modified model is a Bayesian ASA model that uses Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to generate posterior distributions for model parameters and output. The Bayesian ASA model is written for the Automatic Differentiation Model Builder (ADMB) programming framework (Fournier et al., 2012). This dataset includes a written description of the Bayesian model, model files for ADMB (.R, .ctl, TPL, .dat, .PIN formats), model output files as code (.R and .RData formats) and tabular data (.csv format), and graphical summaries (in .pdf format), including posterior predictive intervals, parameter distributions, and key model outputs. Anyone who wishes to run the Bayesian ASA must download ADMB (http://www.admb-project.org/downloads) and R (https://www.r-project.org/).本数据集隶属于埃克森·瓦尔迪兹漏油事件受托人委员会的鲱鱼计划，对应项目编号为13120111-Q、14120111-Q与16120111-Q。该计划为多维度研究项目，旨在探明自20世纪90年代初以来威廉王子湾鲱鱼种群持续衰退的原因。本鲱鱼计划的核心目标之一，是通过研究与监测提升鲱鱼种群的预测能力。本数据集围绕改良版年龄结构分析（age-structure-analysis, ASA）模型的开发展开，该模型为阿拉斯加州鱼类与野生动物部（ADF&G）当前用于预测威廉王子湾鲱鱼生物量的工具。该改良模型为贝叶斯ASA模型，借助马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛（Markov chain Monte Carlo, MCMC）方法生成模型参数与输出结果的后验分布。该贝叶斯ASA模型基于自动微分模型构建器（ADMB）编程框架编写（Fournier等人，2012）。本数据集包含贝叶斯模型的书面说明、适配ADMB的模型文件（格式为.R、.ctl、.TPL、.dat、.PIN）、代码格式的模型输出文件（格式为.R与.RData）、表格数据（格式为.csv）以及可视化汇总图表（格式为.pdf），其中涵盖后验预测区间、参数分布与核心模型输出结果。所有欲运行该贝叶斯ASA模型的使用者，需自行下载ADMB（http://www.admb-project.org/downloads）与R语言（https://www.r-project.org/）。