Parkfield Earthquake Prediction, Spring 1989: Coalinga, Paso Robles and Taft Combined File (M1096D)

A model of public perception and response to communication about natural hazards risk was constructed. It was estimated on data from samples of households in three communities at risk in the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment. Estimated model parameters revealed consistent conclusions. Communicated risk information that was reinforced through additional communications and/or social cues precipitated an interactive personal search for more information; personal definitions of risk and what to do emerged; and these social constructions directed how the public responded. Perceived risk only indirectly impacted public action through information searching. This suggests that searching behavior should intervene between perception of risk and response in the theory of public risk communication.本研究构建了一套面向自然灾害风险传播的公众认知与响应模型。该模型基于帕克菲尔德（Parkfield）地震预测实验中三个受风险影响社区的家庭抽样数据完成参数估计。模型参数估计结果得出了一致的研究结论：通过额外传播与社会线索强化后的风险传播信息，会触发公众开展互动式的个人信息搜寻；公众会逐步形成对风险及应对措施的个人认知，而这些社会建构将主导公众的响应行为。感知到的风险仅通过信息搜寻行为对公众行动产生间接影响，这表明在公众风险传播理论框架中，信息搜寻行为应作为风险认知与响应行为之间的中介环节。