Potential distribution prediction of Amaranthus palmeri S. Watson in China under current and future climate scenarios

The vicious invasive alien plant Amaranthus palmeri poses a serious threat to ecological security and food security due to its strong adaptability, competitiveness, and herbicide resistance. Predicting its potential habitats under current and future climate change is critical for monitoring and early warning. In this study, we used two sets of climate data, namely, WorldClim1.4 and RCPs (the historical climate data of WorldClim version 1.4 and future climate data of RCPs), WorldClim2.1 and SSPs (the historical climate data of WorldClim version 2.1 and future climate data of SSPs), to analyze the dominant environmental variables affecting the habitat suitability and predict the potential distribution of A. palmeri to climate change in China based on the MaxEnt model. The results show that (i) Temperature has a greater impact on the distribution of A. palmeri. The relative contributions of temperature-related variables count to 70 % or more, and the annual mean temperature (bio1) reached ...恶性外来入侵植物长芒苋（Amaranthus palmeri）因其极强的适应性、竞争力与抗除草剂特性，对生态安全与粮食安全构成严重威胁。预测其在当前及未来气候变化情境下的潜在适生区，对其监测与预警工作至关重要。本研究采用两套气候数据组合：其一为WorldClim 1.4与典型浓度路径（RCPs），对应WorldClim 1.4版本历史气候数据及RCPs未来气候数据；其二为WorldClim 2.1与共享社会经济路径（SSPs），对应WorldClim 2.1版本历史气候数据及SSPs未来气候数据。基于最大熵模型（MaxEnt），本研究分析了影响长芒苋适生性的主导环境变量，并预测了其在中国境内受气候变化影响的潜在分布范围。研究结果表明：其一，温度对长芒苋的分布影响更为显著，温度相关变量的相对贡献率达70%及以上，其中年平均气温（bio1）为……