A micro-macro approach for the evaluation of fiscal policies: the case of the Italian tax-benefit reform

A comprehensive evaluation of fiscal policy reforms requires a simultaneous consideration of their aggregate impact on the economy as a whole as well as their distributional implications at the individual or household level. In this paper, we provide a new link between a fiscal microsimulation model and a macro-econometric model and we analyze the impact of the reform of the Italian tax-benefit system occurred in 2022. The reform is expected to have a first-round cost of about 15 billion euros due to the tax cut and the increase in child related benefits, with a reduction in inequality of around 0.5 percentage points of Gini index. The second-round effects confirm the reduction in inequality and indicate an initial self-financing effect of about 7%. Our estimates support the importance of integrating micro- and macroeconomic insights for a more accurate assessment of the impact of public policies.对财政政策改革开展全面评估，需同时考量其对整体经济的总量影响，以及其在个体或家庭层面的分配效应。本研究搭建了财政微观模拟模型（fiscal microsimulation model）与宏观计量经济模型（macro-econometric model）之间的新型关联，并分析了2022年意大利税惠福利体系改革的政策效应。本次改革因减税与儿童相关福利提升，预计首轮政策成本约为150亿欧元，同时可使基尼系数（Gini index）下降约0.5个百分点。第二轮效应进一步验证了不平等程度的缓解，并显示该改革具备约7%的初始自筹资能力。本研究的估算结果证实，整合微观与宏观经济分析视角，能够更精准地评估公共政策的实施效应，这一思路具备重要价值。