Proportional outcomes (expressed as percentages) from 103 simulations for the prey-limitation model (Fig. 1A) and the extended model (Fig. 1B) under a scenario of increased regional warming and an increase in the krill fishery.

Results are summarized as the percentage of simulations under which a subset of modeled groups (Adélie and chinstrap penguins, krill and trophic competitors) underwent negative or positive change. Cases of clear model support for an increase or decrease under the perturbation scenario (i.e. >70% of predictions) are asterisked. The full set of outcomes from these analyses is provided in Figs. S1 and S2.