Evaluating the Impact of Repeated Leadership Targeting on Militant Group Durability

An analysis of 207 militant groups between 1970 and 2008 inclusive supports the idea that repeated targeting policies reduce the mortality rate of militant organizations, but in a nuanced way: the relationship between the cumulative effect of targeting policies and the mortality rate is quadratic. The initial practice of leadership targeting actually increases the leader’s organization’s predicted sur- vival years, but its repeated practice clearly reduces their survivability. The findings also indicate that repeated leadership targeting during the initial period of a militant group’s existence more effectively reduces their total lifespan. The results suggest that for leadership targeting to be effective, “wait and see” is not good strategy; rather, patience and multiple interventions are required. Policy makers and practitioners should be cautious to avoid deciding on the policy’s effectiveness based on a single intervention.