Replication Data for: Predicting Support for the Christian Democrats in the 2025 German Bundestag Election: A state-level approach

Our study aims to predict the result for the German Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) in the upcoming federal parliamentary election on February 23, 2025, using data available in late December 2024. We proceed in three steps. First, we create a regression model using state- and national-level data from the 1972 to 2021 to explain the results of the CSU in Bavaria and the CDU in all other states for the German Bundestag elections. Then, we use the coefficients from the estimated models and enter the most up-to-date relevant data to predict state-level Bundestag results for each of the 16 German states. Finally, we use the distribution of voters across the states from the previous 2021 Bundestag election to estimate the weight of each state to reflect its impact on the final overall federal election result. Our models forecast that the CDU/CSU will garner between 31.5% and 34.6% of the vote share in the February 2025 Bundestag election.本研究旨在利用2024年12月下旬可获取的数据，预测德国基督教民主联盟（CDU/CSU）在2025年2月23日即将举行的联邦议会选举中的选举结果。研究分为三个步骤展开：首先，我们基于1972年至2021年的州级与国家级选举数据构建回归模型，用以解释德国联邦议院（German Bundestag）选举中巴伐利亚州基督教社会联盟（CSU）以及其余各州基督教民主联盟（CDU）的选举结果；随后，我们利用估计得到的模型系数，并代入最新的相关数据，对德国16个联邦州各自的联邦议院选举结果进行州级预测；最后，我们借助2021年联邦议院选举中各州的选民分布情况，估算每个州的权重，以体现其对联邦选举最终整体结果的影响程度。本研究构建的模型预测，基民盟/基社盟在2025年2月的联邦议院选举中将获得31.5%至34.6%的得票率。