Data for "Persistence of the Armed Conflict in Colombia: an Agreement without Peace"

This data is related to the study "Persistence of the Armed Conflict in Colombia: an Agreement without Peace". This research analyses the armed conflict persistence in Colombia from 2008 to 2018 based on the viability hypothesis. To explore this phenomenon, a quantitative methodology is implemented in two steps. Firstly, non-parametric Kaplan-Meier functions and survival risk functions are developed as initial approximation. Subsequently, a Probit model with panel data is implemented and the covariates are grouped into four dimensions to determine the factors that affect the conflict persistence likelihood: opportunity, grievance, institutional and political. The main findings indicate that the viability hypothesis boosts the continuity of the armed conflict, which is enhanced and perpetuated by the viability and financial incentives from public revenues and natural resources, while the grievance, political fragmentation and institutional dimensions contribute to the opportunity structure in Collier that makes the conflict militarily and economically viable in Colombia.本数据集与研究《哥伦比亚武装冲突的存续：一纸无和平的协定》（Persistence of the Armed Conflict in Colombia: an Agreement without Peace）相关。 本研究基于生存能力假说（viability hypothesis），对2008至2018年哥伦比亚武装冲突的存续态势展开分析。 为探究该现象，本研究采用分两步走的定量研究方法：首先，构建非参数Kaplan-Meier函数（Kaplan-Meier functions）与生存风险函数（survival risk functions）作为初始近似手段；随后，构建带面板数据（panel data）的Probit模型（Probit model），并将协变量（covariates）划分为四大维度，以识别影响冲突存续概率的核心因素：机会维度、不满情绪维度、制度维度与政治维度。 主要研究结果表明，生存能力假说助推了哥伦比亚武装冲突的持续态势；公共收入与自然资源带来的生存保障与财政激励进一步强化并延续了这一冲突。与此同时，不满情绪、政治碎片化与制度维度共同构建了科利尔（Collier）提出的机会结构，使得哥伦比亚的武装冲突在军事与经济层面均具备存续可行性。