Correlates of amphibian decline risk.

The five most parsimonious generalized linear mixed-effects models investigating (a) life history correlates of decline risk (n = 3,045) and (b) environmental context, after accounting for effects of life history correlates (top-ranked ecology/life-history model denoted as ‘lhb’–life-history base) (n = 3,121). Models include nested (hierarchical) taxonomic (Order/Family) random intercepts and geographic distance random slopes to account for spatial autocorrelation. Models were ranked according to the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). For ecology/life history models, the five most highly BIC-ranked models accounted for >99 % of the posterior model weight (wBIC) of the total of 40 models considered. For environmental context, model weights were more evenly distributed among the 5 most highly ranked of the 75 models considered. Terms shown are RG = range (km2), BS = body size, HB = habit, RC = reproductive cycle, RS = reproductive strategy, PC = presence/absence of parental care, SS = spawning site and FT = fertilization type, TM = mean temperature, PR = precipitation range, PM = mean precipitation, TR = temperature range, HL = % habitat lost, HD = human density (people/km2) Also shown are number of parameters (k), maximum log-likelihood (LL), difference in BIC for each model from the most parsimonious model (ΔBIC), model weight (wBIC), percent deviance explained (%DE) in the response variable (decline probability) by the model under consideration, and the difference between the %DE for the current environmental context model and the life history base (lhb) model (Δ%DE).