Parameter estimates (mean and 95% credible interval) of selected negative binomial models.

Legend: GARIMA(3′,1,0)-SOH-RF = GARIMA(3,1,0) model with parameters for the first two lags ( and ) omitted, second order harmonics and rainfall lagged at 2 months (in m); GSARIMA(3′,1,0)×(1,0,0)12 = GSARIMA(3,1,0)×(1,0,0)12 model with parameters for the first two lags ( and ) fixed to zero; AH = annual harmonic, SAH = semi-annual harmonic; $ = derived parameter, phase shift = phase shift of the cosine function expressed in months.