Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2006 - Somalia

Abstract
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The Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) is a household survey programme developed by UNICEF to assist countries in filling data gaps for monitoring human development in general and the situation of children and women in particular. The Pan Arab Population and Family Health Project(PAPFAM) is a programme conducted to enable national health institutions in the Arab region to obtain a timely and integrated flow of reliable information suitable for formulating, implementing, monitoring and evaluating the family health and reproductive health policies and programs in a cost-effective manner.

MICS and PAPFAM are capable of producing statistically sound, internationally comparable estimates of social indicators. The current round of MICS/PAPFAM is focused on providing a monitoring tool for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the World Fit for Children (WFFC), as well as for other major international commitments, such as the United Nations General Assembly Special Session (UNGASS) on HIV/AIDS and the Abuja targets for malaria.

Survey Objectives
The 2006 Somali Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS)/Pan Arab Population and Family Health Project(PAPFAM) has as its primary objectives:
- To provide up-to-date information for assessing the situation of children and women in Somalia
- To furnish data needed for monitoring progress toward goals established in the Millennium Declaration, the goals of A World Fit For Children (WFFC), and other internationally agreed upon goals, as a basis for future action;
- To contribute to the improvement of data and monitoring systems in Somalia and to strengthen technical expertise in the design, implementation, and analysis of such systems.

Survey Content
Following the MICS global questionnaire templates, the questionnaires were designed in a modular fashion customized to the needs of Somalia. The questionnaires consist of a household questionnaire, a questionnaire for women aged 15-49 and a questionnaire for children under the age of five (to be administered to the mother or caretaker).

Survey Implementation
The Somalia MICS/PAPFAM was carried out by UNICEF with the support and assistance the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation of the Somali Transitional Federal Government, the Ministry of National Planning and Coordination of Somaliland and the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation of Puntland. Technical assistance and training for the survey was provided through a series of regional workshops organised by UNICEF and PAPFAM, covering questionnaire content, sampling and survey implementation; data processing; data quality and data analysis; report writing and dissemination.

Geographic coverage
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The Somali 2006 MICS/PAPFAM covers all regions of Somalia. For the purposes of this survey, the analysis refers to the North West Zone, the North East Zone and Central South Zone according to prewar boundaries for Somaliland and Puntland and does not imply any recognition of administrative boundaries by the United Nations or the League of Arab States.

Analysis unit
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Households (defined as a group of persons who usually live and eat together)

De jure household members (defined as memers of the household who usually live in the household, which may include people who did not sleep in the household the previous night, but does not include visitors who slept in the household the previous night but do not usually live in the household)

Women aged 15-49

Children aged 0-4

Universe
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The survey covered all de jure household members (usual residents), all women aged 15-49 years resident in the household, and all children aged 0-4 years (under age 5) resident in the household. The survey also included a full birth history module which covered all live births born to ever-married women aged 15-49.

Kind of data
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Sample survey data [ssd]

Sampling procedure
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The principal objective of the sample design was to provide current and reliable estimates on a set of indicators covering the four major areas of the World Fit for Children declaration, including promoting healthy lives; providing quality education; protecting against abuse, exploitation and violence; and combating HIV/AIDS. The population covered by the 2006 MICS/PAPFAM is defined as the universe of all women aged 15-49 and all children aged under 5. A sample of households was selected and all women aged 15-49 identified as usual residents of these households were interviewed. In addition, the mother or the caretaker of all children aged under 5 who were usual residents of the household were also interviewed about the child.

The 2006 MICS/PAPFAM collected data from a nationally representative sample of households, women and children. The primary focus of the 2006 MICS/PAPFAM was to provide estimates of key population and health, education, child protection and HIV related indicators for the country as a whole, for the North West, North East and Central South Zones and for urban and rural areas separately. Somalia is divided into 18 regions. Each region is subdivided into districts, and each district into settlements and towns. The sample frame for this survey was based on the list of settlements developed from the 2005-2006 UNDP Settlement Survey and WHO vaccination campaign data.

The Sampling design follows a 4 stage-sample approach. The first stage is the selection of the districts in each of the 18 regions of the country selected using probability proportional to size (pps). The second stage is the selection of the secondary sampling units which are defined as permanent and temporary settlements. The third stage is the selection of the cluster(s) within the settlement and the fourth stage is the selection of the households to be interviewed.

Once the districts had been selected great efforts went into compiling a complete list of permanent and temporary settlements within these districts. The main source was the WHO immunisation campaign data, this data was later backed up by the UNDP settlement survey for at least two out of the three zones. Other sources also contributed such as FAO data on water points which could act as proxy for surrounding nomadic areas and temporary settlements. Finally lists were shown to the NGO partners implementing the survey and UNICEF staff on the ground for additional contributions to recent movement of internally displaced persons and nomads. The settlement lists were then sorted into urban and non urban. The first two stages of sampling were thus completed by selecting the required number of clusters from each of the 3 zones by urban and rural areas separately.

Mapping and Listing Activities

For settlements over the estimated size of 150 households some form of segmentation through sketch mapping was necessary. For several district capitals it was possible to use maps from UN Habitat to assist the personnel deployed in sketch mapping. However for most of the larger non-urban settlements there were no maps available. The most important aspect of the sketch mapping was to divide the settlements into roughly equal sizes by estimating the number of households and to clearly delineate the segments using identifiable boundaries.

Once sketch maps were prepared survey coordinators were then in a position to randomly select the cluster(s) where household would be selected. It must be added at this point that finding people trained in cartographic techniques is rare in Somalia. Thus the quality of the maps varied significantly across the country and resources and time also did not allow for a full household count.

Selection of Households

For the final stage of sampling, the Somali MICS/PAPFAM had no other option than to use the method used in MICS 2 of the Expanded Program for Immunization (EPI) random walk method; the expense of household/dwelling listing would simply be too considerable.

Whilst the EPI method is quick and approximately self-weighting, it is recognised that this is not a probability sample, and so cannot ensure objectivity of household selection. In order to try and avoid the subjectivity involved in selecting households some measures were put in place. For example instead of relying on an arbitrary decision regarding the central point of a cluster, supervisors selected at least three or four possible starting points and then randomly choose one of them. Moreover only supervisors were able to select and number the households, not interviewers. Significant time was spent training supervisors on how to select households in order to avoid some of the criticisms typically directed towards this method.

For clusters falling in nomadic areas (the temporary settlements) the survey teams were instructed to interview the first 24 households that they came across. Typically nomads do not move in large numbers, therefore in order to ensure representation of nomads in the sample it was necessary to assume a more purposive method of sampling for this group.

Sampling deviation
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No major deviations from the original sample design were made. All clusters were accessed and successfully interviewed with good response rates.

Mode of data collection
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Face-to-face [f2f]

Research instrument
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The questionnaires for the Somali MICS/PAPFAM were structured questionnaires based on the MICS3 Model Questionnaire with some modifications and additions. A household questionnaire was administered in each household, which collected various information on household members including sex, age, relationship, and orphanhood status.

In addition to a household questionnaire, questionnaires were administered in each household for women age 15-49 and children under age five. For children, the questionnaire was administered to the mother or caretaker of the child.

The questionnaires were developed in English from the MICS3 Model Questionnaires, and were translated into Af-Somali. Differences in translation were reviewed and resolved in collaboration with the original translators.

The English and Somali questionnaires were both piloted as part of the survey pretest.

The questionnaires contained the following modules:

HOUSEHOLD: Household characteristics, household listing, orphaned children, education, child labour, water and sanitation, household use of insecticide treated mosquito nets, salt iodization and maternal mortality.

WOMEN: Women's characteristics, child mortality, birth history, tetanus toxoid, maternal and newborn health, marriage, polygyny, female genital cutting, contraception, HIV/AIDS knowledge and domestic violence.

CHILDREN: Children's characteristics, birth registration and early learning, vitamin A, breastfeeding, care of illness, malaria, immunization and anthropometry.

Cleaning operations
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Data editing took place at a number of stages throughout the processing (see Other processing), including:
a) Office editing and coding
b) During data entry
c) Structure checking and completeness
d) Secondary editing
e) Structural checking of SPSS data files

Detailed documentation of the editing of data can be found in the data processing guidelines found in the global MICS manual http://www.childinfo.org/mics/mics3/manual.php

Response rate
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Of the 6000 households selected for the sample 5969 were successfully interviewed for a household response rate of 99.5 percent. In the interviewed households, 7277 women (age 15-49) were identified. Of these, 6764 were successfully interviewed, yielding a response rate of 93 percent. In addition, 6373 children under age five were listed in the household questionnaire. Of these, questionnaires were completed for 6305 which corresponds to a response rate of 98.9 percent. Overall response rates of 92.5 percent and 98.4 are calculated for the women's and under-5's interviews respectively

Sampling error estimates
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Estimates from a sample survey are affected by two types of errors: 1) non-sampling errors and 2) sampling errors. Non-sampling errors are the results of mistakes made in the implementation of data collection and data processing. Numerous efforts were made during implementation of the 2005-2006 MICS to minimize this type of error, however, non-sampling errors are impossible to avoid and difficult to evaluate statistically.

Sampling errors can be evaluated statistically. The sample of respondents to the 2006 MICS is only one of many possible samples that could have been selected from the same population, using the same design and expected size. Each of these samples would yield results that differe somewhat from the results of the actual sample selected. Sampling errors are a measure of the variability in the results of the survey between all possible samples, and, although, the degree of variability is not known exactly, it can be estimated from the survey results. The sampling erros are measured in terms of the standard error for a particular statistic (mean or percentage), which is the square root of the variance. Confidence intervals are calculated for each statistic within which the true value for the population can be assumed to fall. Plus or minus two standard errors of the statistic is used for key statistics presented in MICS, equivalent to a 95 percent confidence interval.

If the sample of respondents had been a simple random sample, it would have been possible to use straightforward formulae for calculating sampling errors. However, the 2005-2006 MICS sample is the result of a multi-stage stratified design, and consequently needs to use more complex formulae. The SPSS complex samples module has been used to calculate sampling errors for the 2005-2006 MICS. This module uses the Taylor linearization method of variance estimation for survey estimates that are means or proportions. This method is documented in the SPSS file CSDescriptives.pdf found under the Help, Algorithms options in SPSS.

Sampling errors have been calculated for a select set of statistics (all of which are proportions due to the limitations of the Taylor linearization method) for the national sample, urban and rural areas, and for each of the five regions. For each statistic, the estimate, its standard error, the coefficient of variation (or relative error -- the ratio between the standard error and the estimate), the design effect, and the square root design effect (DEFT -- the ratio between the standard error using the given sample design and the standard error that would result if a simple random sample had been used), as well as the 95 percent confidence intervals (+/-2 standard errors).

Details of the sampling errors are presented in the sampling errors appendix to the final report.

Data appraisal
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A series of data quality tables and graphs are available to review the quality of the data and include the following:

Age distribution of the household population
Age distribution of eligible women and interviewed women
Age distribution of eligible children and children for whom the mother or caretaker was interviewed
Age distribution of children under age 5 by 3 month groups
Age and period ratios at boundaries of eligibility
Percent of observations with missing information on selected variables
Presence of mother inthe household and person interviewed for the under 5 questionnaire
School attendance by single year age
Sex ratio at birth among children ever born, surviving and dead by age of respondent
Distribution of women by time since last birth
Scatterplot of weight by height, weight by age and height by age
Graph of male and female population by single years of age
Population pyramid

The results of each of these data quality tables is shown in the appendix of the final report.

The generral rule for presentation of missing data in the final report tabulations is that a column is presented for missing data if the percentage of cases with missing data is 1% or more. Cases with missing data on the background characteristics (e.g. education) are included in the tables, but the missing data rows are suppressed and noted at the bottom of the tables in the report (not in the SPSS output, however).

摘要
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联合国儿童基金会（UNICEF）为协助各国填补关于人类发展总体状况，尤其是儿童和妇女状况的数据空白，开发了多项指标集群调查（MICS）项目。泛阿拉伯人口和家庭健康项目（PAPFAM）是一项旨在使阿拉伯地区国家卫生机构能够及时、综合地获取可靠信息的计划，这些信息适用于以成本效益的方式制定、实施、监控和评估家庭健康和生殖健康政策与项目的实施。

MICS和PAPFAM能够产生统计上可靠、国际可比的社会指标估计。当前MICS/PAPFAM的调查轮次专注于提供千年发展目标（MDGs）、世界适宜儿童（WFFC）以及联合国大会特别会议（UNGASS）关于艾滋病和 Abuja 治疗疟疾等重大国际承诺的监控工具。

调查目标
2006年索马里多项指标集群调查（MICS）/泛阿拉伯人口和家庭健康项目（PAPFAM）的主要目标如下：
- 为评估索马里儿童和妇女的状况提供最新信息
- 提供监测千年宣言、世界适宜儿童（WFFC）目标以及其他国际共识目标进展所需的数据，作为未来行动的基础；
- 为改善索马里数据与监控系统做出贡献，并加强设计、实施和分析此类系统的技术专长。

调查内容
遵循MICS全球问卷模板，问卷以模块化方式设计，以适应索马里的需求。问卷包括家庭问卷、15-49岁女性问卷以及5岁以下儿童问卷（由母亲或监护人填写）。

调查实施
索马里MICS/PAPFAM由联合国儿童基金会实施，得到索马里过渡联邦政府计划与国际合作部、索马里兰国家规划和协调部以及邦特兰计划与国际合作部的支持和协助。通过联合国儿童基金会和PAPFAM组织的一系列区域性研讨会，为调查提供技术援助和培训，研讨会涵盖了问卷内容、抽样和调查实施；数据处理；数据质量与数据分析；报告撰写和传播。

地理覆盖范围
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2006年索马里MICS/PAPFAM覆盖索马里的所有地区。就本调查而言，分析根据战争前索马里兰和邦特兰的边界，涉及西北区、东北区和中部南区，但不代表联合国或阿拉伯国家联盟承认行政边界。

分析单位
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家庭（定义为通常共同生活和进食的一群人）

法定家庭成员（定义为通常居住在家庭中的人，可能包括前一天晚上未在家庭中过夜的人，但不包括前一天晚上在家庭中过夜但通常不住在家庭中的访客）

15-49岁女性

0-4岁儿童

总体
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调查覆盖了所有法定家庭成员（常住居民）、所有居住在家庭中的15-49岁女性以及所有居住在家庭中的0-4岁儿童（5岁以下）。调查还包括一个完整的出生史模块，涵盖所有15-49岁已婚女性的所有活产。

数据类型
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样本调查数据 [ssd]

抽样程序
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抽样设计的主要目标是提供关于《世界适宜儿童宣言》四个主要领域的当前和可靠估计，包括促进健康生活；提供高质量教育；防范虐待、剥削和暴力；以及抗击艾滋病。2006年MICS/PAPFAM的调查范围定义为由所有15-49岁女性和所有5岁以下儿童组成的总体。选择了家庭样本，并访谈了这些家庭的所有15-49岁常住女性。此外，还访谈了所有5岁以下常住儿童的母亲或监护人，了解儿童的情况。

2006年MICS/PAPFAM从全国代表性的家庭、女性和儿童样本中收集数据。2006年MICS/PAPFAM的主要重点是提供关于整个国家、西北区、东北区和中部南区以及城市和农村地区的关键人口和健康、教育、儿童保护和艾滋病相关指标的估计。索马里分为18个地区。每个地区划分为区，每个区划分为定居点和城镇。本调查的抽样框架基于从2005-2006年联合国开发计划署（UNDP）定居点调查和世界卫生组织（WHO）疫苗接种活动数据开发的定居点清单。

抽样设计采用4阶段抽样方法。第一阶段是在国家18个地区中按规模比例（pps）选择地区。第二阶段是选择次级抽样单位，定义为永久性和临时性定居点。第三阶段是在定居点内选择聚类（s）。第四阶段是选择要访谈的家庭。

一旦选择了地区，就投入了大量努力，编制了这些地区内所有永久性和临时性定居点的完整清单。主要来源是世界卫生组织（WHO）的疫苗接种活动数据，这些数据后来由UNDP定居点调查至少在三个区域中得到了支持。其他来源也做出了贡献，例如联合国粮食及农业组织（FAO）关于水源的数据，这些数据可以作为周围游牧地区和临时性定居点的替代品。最后，将清单提交给实施调查的非政府组织（NGO）合作伙伴和现场联合国儿童基金会（UNICEF）工作人员，以获得关于内部位移人员和游牧民最近移动情况的额外贡献。然后将定居点清单分为城市和非城市。因此，抽样前两个阶段是通过分别按城市和农村地区从每个3个区域中选择所需数量的聚类来完成的。

制图和编目活动

对于估计家庭数量超过150户的定居点，需要通过草图制图进行某种形式的分割。对于几个地区首府，可以使用联合国人类住区（UN Habitat）的地图来协助部署在草图制图的人员。然而，对于大多数较大的非城市定居点，没有可用的地图。草图制图最重要的方面是通过估计家庭数量将定居点大致分为相等的规模，并使用可识别的边界清楚地界定各个部分。

一旦准备好了草图地图，调查协调员就可以随机选择家庭所在的聚类（s）。必须补充一点，在索马里找到受过制图技术培训的人是罕见的。因此，地图的质量在全国范围内差异很大，资源和时间也不允许进行全面的家庭计数。

家庭选择

在最终抽样阶段，索马里MICS/PAPFAM别无选择，只能使用MICS 2扩大免疫规划（EPI）随机步行法；家庭/住宅编目的成本太高了。

虽然EPI方法快速且大约是自加权的，但人们认识到这并不是一个概率样本，因此不能确保家庭选择的客观性。为了尽量减少选择家庭过程中涉及的主观性，采取了一些措施。例如，不是依赖于关于聚类中心点的任意决定，而是由监督员选择至少三个或四个可能的起点，然后随机选择其中一个。此外，只有监督员能够选择和编号家庭，而不是访谈员。在培训监督员如何选择家庭以避免通常针对这种方法的一些批评上花费了大量的时间。

对于位于游牧地区（临时性定居点）的聚类，调查团队被指示访谈他们遇到的第一个24户家庭。通常游牧民不会大批量移动，因此为了确保游牧民在样本中的代表性，有必要假设对这一群体采用更为目的性的抽样方法。

抽样偏差
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没有对原始抽样设计做出重大偏差。所有聚类都得到了访问，并成功进行了访谈，响应率良好。

数据收集方式
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面对面 [f2f]

研究工具
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索马里MICS/PAPFAM的问卷是基于MICS3模型问卷的结构化问卷，经过一些修改和补充。在每个家庭中进行了家庭问卷的发放，收集了关于家庭成员的各种信息，包括性别、年龄、关系和孤儿状况。

除了家庭问卷外，还向每个家庭中的15-49岁女性和5岁以下儿童进行了问卷发放。对于儿童，问卷由儿童的母亲或监护人填写。

问卷是从MICS3模型问卷中用英语开发的，并翻译成了索马里语（Af-Somali）。翻译中的差异在合作中进行了审查和解决。

英语和索马里语问卷都作为调查预测试的一部分进行了试点。

问卷包含以下模块：

家庭：家庭特征、家庭登记、孤儿、教育、儿童劳动、水和卫生、家庭使用经杀虫剂处理的蚊帐、食盐碘化和孕产妇死亡率。

女性：女性特征、儿童死亡率、出生史、破伤风类毒素、孕产妇和新生儿健康、婚姻、一妻多夫制、女性生殖器切割、避孕、艾滋病知识和家庭暴力。

儿童：儿童特征、出生登记和早期学习、维生素A、母乳喂养、疾病护理、疟疾、免疫和人体测量学。

数据清理
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在整个数据处理过程中进行了数据编辑，包括：
a) 办公室编辑和编码
b) 数据录入期间
c) 结构检查和完整性
d) 次级编辑
e) SPSS数据文件的结构检查

有关数据编辑的详细文档可以在全球MICS手册中的数据处理指南中找到 http://www.childinfo.org/mics/mics3/manual.php

响应率
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在选定的6000户样本中，5969户成功访谈，家庭响应率为99.5%。在访谈的家庭中，确定了7277名（15-49岁）女性。其中，6764名成功访谈，响应率为93%。此外，家庭问卷中列出了6373名5岁以下儿童。其中，完成了6305份问卷，对应响应率为98.9%。女性的整体响应率为92.5%，5岁以下儿童的响应率为98.4%。

抽样误差估计
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样本调查的估计受两种类型的误差影响：1）非抽样误差和2）抽样误差。非抽样误差是数据收集和数据处理实施中的错误的结果。在实施2005-2006年MICS期间，做出了许多努力来尽量减少此类误差，然而，非抽样误差是不可能避免的，也难以进行统计评估。

抽样误差可以统计评估。2006年MICS的受访者样本只是从同一总体中可以选出的许多可能样本之一，使用相同的设计和预期规模。这些样本中的每一个都会产生与实际选定的样本结果有所不同的结果。抽样误差是衡量所有可能样本之间调查结果差异的指标，尽管变异性程度不完全清楚，但可以从调查结果中估计出来。抽样误差以特定统计量（均值或百分比）的标准误差来衡量，这是方差的平方根。对于每个统计量，都计算了置信区间，假设真实值在人口中可以落在该区间内。MICS中呈现的关键统计数据使用加减两个标准误差，相当于95%的置信区间。

如果受访者样本是简单随机样本，就可以使用简单的公式来计算抽样误差。然而，2005-2006年MICS样本是分层多阶段设计的产物，因此需要使用更复杂的公式。SPSS复杂样本模块已用于计算2005-2006年MICS的抽样误差。该模块使用泰勒线性化方法进行方差估计，用于调查估计的均值或比例。该方法在SPSS文件CSDescriptives.pdf中有记录，该文件位于SPSS“帮助”、“算法”选项下。

为选定的一组统计数据（所有这些都是由于泰勒线性化方法的限制而成为比例）计算了抽样误差，包括全国样本、城市和农村地区以及每个五个地区。对于每个统计量，估计值、其标准误差、变异系数（或相对误差——标准误差与估计值的比率）、设计效应以及平方根设计效应（DEFT——使用给定样本设计计算的标准误差与如果使用简单随机样本将得到的标准误差的比率），以及95%的置信区间（加减2个标准误差）。

抽样误差的详细信息在最终报告的抽样误差附录中提供。

数据评估
---------------------------

提供了一系列数据质量表格和图形，以审查数据质量，包括以下内容：

家庭人口年龄分布
符合资格的女性和受访女性的年龄分布
符合资格的儿童和母亲或监护人访谈的儿童的年龄分布
5岁以下儿童按3个月年龄组的年龄分布
资格边界处的年龄和时期比率
具有选定变量缺失信息的观测值的百分比
家庭中是否有母亲和为5岁以下儿童问卷访谈的人员
按单一年龄的学校出席率
出生儿童中，存活和死亡的男性和女性的性别比
按受访者年龄分组，出生时、存活和死亡的男性和女性的性别比
按时间划分的女性分布
体重与身高、体重与年龄和身高与年龄的散点图
男性和女性人口按单一年龄分布的图表
人口金字塔

每个数据质量表格的结果都显示在最终报告的附录中。

在最终报告的表格中呈现缺失数据的通用规则是，如果缺失数据的案例百分比达到1%或更多，则呈现缺失数据列。具有背景特征（例如教育）缺失数据的案例包含在表格中，但缺失数据行在报告的底部被压制并注明（但在SPSS输出中不是这样）。