Insects and aviation safety: the case of the keyhole wasp Pachodynerus nasidens (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in Australia

Data from a trap nest study using replica pitot probes was used to assess the risk to aircraft from the keyhole wasp, Pachodynerus nasidens (Hymenoptera: Vespidae). The data used was the number of blocked pitot probes of a number of airframe types at 4 locations at Brisbane Airport, Australia, over a period of 39 months. The effects of covering probes (to prevent nesting) was examined using mean time before failure analyses, and the time probes are left uncovered and aircraft movements used to model a number of scenarios. These were used to estimate the cost of the lowest acceptable level of risk. Standard risk analysis and a bow tie risk assessment were conducted to illustrate points of intervention, and potential management measures (i.e. control or eradication) for the keyhole wasp discussed. The risk of spread of the keyhole wasp in Australia was modeled using climate projections based on equivalent climates in its home range in coastal Brazil本研究采用复制品皮托管探针（replica pitot probes）开展陷阱巢研究所获数据，用以评估匙孔蜾蠃（Pachodynerus nasidens，膜翅目：胡蜂科）对航空器的威胁风险。所用数据集涵盖澳大利亚布里斯班机场4个监测点位、39个月周期内，多款机身机型的皮托管探针堵塞数量统计结果。研究通过故障前平均时间分析，考察了覆盖探针以防止筑巢的防控效果，并结合探针裸露时长与航空器运行频次构建多类场景模型。利用上述模型估算了可接受最低风险水平对应的防控成本。本研究开展了标准风险分析与蝴蝶结风险评估（bow tie risk assessment），以阐明风险干预节点，并讨论了针对匙孔蜾蠃的潜在管理措施（即防控或根除）。本研究基于该物种原生分布区巴西沿海的等效气候数据构建气候预测模型，以此模拟匙孔蜾蠃在澳大利亚境内的扩散风险。