Sea Surface Temperature

This resource is a map of Sea Surface Temperature and comes from from a simulation that uses the multi-model mean forcings from RCP8.5 projection to drive an ocean eddy-resolving model (OFAM3). Insights for Warming and AcidificationIncreased frequency and duration of marine heatwaves increase the likelihood of more frequent and severe coral bleaching events.Tasman Sea approaches a permanent marine heatwave state by GWL3. Great Barrier Reef and Ningaloo Reef will experience annual conditions for extreme bleaching by GWL3. Acidity at GWL3: Southern Ocean surface waters south of 60S will drop below an annual mean aragonite saturation state of 1. Values above 1.0 are required to produce calcareous shells or skeletons optimally. Values below 1 are considered corrosive, and skeletons and shells may be subject to dissolution. The ocean environment will become more stressful for marine organisms and ecosystems.The references for the simulations are:Feng, M., Zhang, X., Oke, P., Monselesan, D., Chamberlain, M. A., Matear, R. J., & Schiller, A. (2016). Invigorating ocean boundary current systems around Australia during 19792014: As simulated in a near-global eddy-resolving ocean model. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Oceans.Hayashida, H., Matear, R. J., & Strutton, P. G. (2020). Background nutrient concentration determines phytoplankton bloom response to marine heatwaves. Global Change Biology, 26(9), 48004811. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15255Hayashida, H., Matear, R. J., Strutton, P. G., & Zhang, X. (2020). Insights into projected changes in marine heatwaves from a high-resolution ocean circulation model. Nature Communications, 11(1), 19. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18241-xMatear, R. J., Chamberlain, M. A., Sun, C., & Feng, M. (2015). Climate change projection for the western tropical Pacific Ocean using a high-resolution ocean model: Implications for tuna fisheries. Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 113(0), 2246.Matear, R. J., Chamberlain, M. A., Sun, C., & Feng, M. (2013). Climate change projection of the Tasman Sea from an Eddy-resolving Ocean Model. Journal Of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 118(6), 29612976.Zhang, X., Oke, P. R., Feng, M., Chamberlain, M. A., Church, J. A., Monselesan, D., et al. (2016). A near-global eddy-resolving OGCM for climate studies. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions.DiagnosticsThe key ocean diagnostics are displayed according to Global Warming Levels (GWLs) using the 20 year period that define a given GWL. The key ocean diagnostics are:1. Sea Surface Temperature monthly climatology2. Surface Aragonite Saturation State monthly climatology3. Surface pH monthly climatology4. Intensity of Marine Heat Wave5. Duration of Marine Heat Wave6. NPP monthly climatology (N mol/m^2/s)7. Degree Heating Weeks (average of the annual maximum value dhw_amax, maximum (dhw_max) and minimum (dhw_max) annual value over GWL period8. Bottom Temperature9. Full ocean depth temperature (note simulation used restoring to T and S below 2000m)10. Magnitude of Bottom Stress (bmf)10. Bottom aragonite saturation state Data/confidence Confidence: high confidence in the direction of change, medium confidence in the magnitude of change and low confidence in the ecological consequence of the changes. (consistent with IPCC AR6)Limitation: ocean simulations that are not well suited for representing the high-resolution dynamics and features of the Australian coastal areas.https://github.com/AusClimateService/hazard_ocean/blob/main/README.md

本数据集为海表温度（Sea Surface Temperature）地图，其数据源自一项模拟研究：采用典型浓度路径8.5（RCP8.5）情景下的多模式平均强迫场，驱动高分辨率涡分辨海洋模式（eddy-resolving ocean model）OFAM3。

### 气候变暖与海洋酸化相关认知
海洋热浪的发生频率与持续时长增加，将导致珊瑚白化事件更频繁、程度更严重。当全球变暖水平（Global Warming Levels, GWL）达到3摄氏度（GWL3）时，塔斯曼海将趋近于永久性海洋热浪状态；大堡礁与宁格罗礁将在GWL3情景下每年出现极端珊瑚白化条件。
关于GWL3情景下的海水酸度：南纬60度以南的南大洋表层海水，其年平均文石饱和状态将降至1以下。海洋生物要形成优质的钙质外壳或骨骼，所需的文石饱和状态阈值为1.0；当该值低于1时，海水将具备侵蚀性，生物的骨骼与外壳可能发生溶解。海洋环境将对海洋生物与生态系统愈发不利。

### 模拟研究参考文献
1. Feng, M., Zhang, X., Oke, P., Monselesan, D., Chamberlain, M. A., Matear, R. J., & Schiller, A. (2016). 1979—2014年澳大利亚周边海洋边界流系统的增强模拟：基于近全球涡分辨海洋模式. 《地球物理研究杂志：海洋分册》（Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans）.
2. Hayashida, H., Matear, R. J., & Strutton, P. G. (2020). 背景营养盐浓度决定浮游植物水华对海洋热浪的响应. 《全球变化生物学》（Global Change Biology）, 26(9), 4800—4811. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15255
3. Hayashida, H., Matear, R. J., Strutton, P. G., & Zhang, X. (2020). 高分辨率海洋环流模式揭示的海洋热浪预估变化. 《自然-通讯》（Nature Communications）, 11(1), 19. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18241-x
4. Matear, R. J., Chamberlain, M. A., Sun, C., & Feng, M. (2015). 基于高分辨率海洋模式的西热带太平洋气候变化预估：对金枪鱼渔业的启示. 《深海研究第二部分：海洋学专题研究》（Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography）, 113(0), 2246.
5. Matear, R. J., Chamberlain, M. A., Sun, C., & Feng, M. (2013). 基于涡分辨海洋模式的塔斯曼海气候变化预估. 《地球物理研究杂志：海洋分册》（Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans）, 118(6), 2961—2976.
6. Zhang, X., Oke, P. R., Feng, M., Chamberlain, M. A., Church, J. A., Monselesan, D., et al. (2016). 用于气候研究的近全球涡分辨海洋环流模式（OGCM）. 《地球科学模型发展讨论》（Geoscientific Model Development Discussions）.

### 诊断指标
本数据集的关键海洋诊断指标将按照全球变暖水平（GWL），以定义各GWL的20年时段为基准进行展示，具体指标包括：
1. 海表温度月气候态
2. 表层文石饱和状态月气候态
3. 表层pH月气候态
4. 海洋热浪强度
5. 海洋热浪持续时长
6. 以氮计的净初级生产力（NPP）月气候态（单位：摩尔/平方米/秒）
7. 积温周数（Degree Heating Weeks, DHW）：GWL时段内年最大值dhw_amax的平均值、年最大值dhw_max与年最小值dhw_min的均值
8. 底层海水温度
9. 全海深水温（注：本模拟对2000米以深的水温与盐度采用了恢复边界条件）
10. 海底应力强度（bmf）
11. 底层文石饱和状态
（注：原文存在序号重复问题，已按内容顺序调整标注）

### 数据与可信度
变化趋势方向具有高可信度，变化幅度具有中等可信度，而变化的生态后果可信度较低，该结论与政府间气候变化专门委员会第六次评估报告（IPCC AR6）的相关表述一致。

### 局限性
本海洋模拟难以准确表征澳大利亚沿海区域的高分辨率动力学过程与海洋特征。

数据集详情链接：https://github.com/AusClimateService/hazard_ocean/blob/main/README.md