Circularity of lithium-ion battery materials in electric vehicles

Batteries have the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas
emissions from on-road transportation. However, environmental and social
impacts of producing lithium-ion batteries, particularly cathode
materials, and concerns over material criticality are frequently
highlighted as barriers to widespread electric vehicle adoption. Circular
economy strategies, like reuse and recycling, can reduce impacts and
secure regional supplies. To understand the potential for circularity, we
undertake a dynamic global material flow analysis of pack-level materials
that includes scenario analysis for changing battery cathode chemistries
and electric vehicle demand. Results are produced regionwise and through
the year 2040 to estimate the potential global and regional circularity of
lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, iron, aluminum, copper, and graphite,
although the analysis is focused on the cathode materials. Under idealized
conditions, retired batteries could supply 60% of cobalt, 53% of lithium,
57% of manganese, and 53% of nickel globally in 2040. If the current mix
of cathode chemistries evolves to a market dominated by NMC 811, a low
cobalt chemistry, there is potential for 85% global circularity of cobalt
in 2040. If the market steers away from cathodes containing cobalt, to an
LFP-dominated market, cobalt, manganese, and nickel become less relevant
and reach circularity before 2040. For each market to benefit from the
recovery of secondary materials, recycling and manufacturing
infrastructure must be developed in each region.