Replication Package for Raising America's Future: Search for Optimal Child-Related Transfers

Replication Package for "Raising America's Future: Search for Optimal Child-Related Transfers" The US differs from other OECD countries in terms of family policy size and composition. This study examines the welfare and macroeconomic effects of family policy reforms. I explore three policy instruments: child-related tax credits, childcare subsidies, and child allowances. The children are merit good due to pay-as-you-go social security structure. I show that expanding family policy, like the American Rescue Plan, improves welfare. I also define the optimal family policy for the United States. It accounts for about 3% of GDP, three times larger than the existing policy, and primarily focused on childcare subsidies. Family policy structure is critical for welfare evaluation because similar expenditure levels can result in contrasting welfare outcomes depending on policy composition. This study emphasizes the importance of carefully designed family policies, as well as the need for ongoing research and policy innovation to maximize societal benefits and promote equitable economic growth. The package contains Fortran code used for the simulation of the results presented in the study, as well as STATA code used for visualization of the results.《“塑造美国未来：探寻最优儿童相关转移支付方案”复现数据包》。美国在家庭政策的规模与构成方面，与其他经合组织（OECD）国家存在显著差异。本研究考察家庭政策改革的福利效应与宏观经济效应。本研究探讨三类政策工具：儿童相关税收抵免、托育补贴与儿童津贴。鉴于现收现付制社会保障体系的存在，儿童属于优值品（merit good）。研究显示，效仿《美国救援计划》扩大家庭政策规模的举措，能够提升社会福利。本研究同时界定了适配美国的最优家庭政策方案：该方案规模约占国内生产总值（GDP）的3%，为现行家庭政策规模的三倍，且政策重心以托育补贴为主。家庭政策的构成结构对福利评估至关重要，即便支出水平相近，不同的政策组合也会带来迥异的福利结果。本研究强调了精心设计家庭政策的重要性，同时指出，为实现社会福利最大化与公平经济增长，需持续开展相关研究并推动政策创新。本复现数据包包含用于模拟本研究呈现结果的Fortran代码，以及用于结果可视化的STATA代码。