Data from: The future of food from the sea

Global food demand is on the rise and serious questions remain about
whether supply can increase sustainably. Land-based expansion is possible,
but may exacerbate climate change and biodiversity loss and compromise the
delivery of other ecosystem services. As food from the sea represents only
17% of current edible meat production, we ask: How much food can we expect
the ocean to sustainably produce by 2050? We examine the main
food-producing sectors in the ocean—wild fisheries, finfish mariculture,
and bivalve mariculture—to estimate “sustainable supply curves” accounting
for ecological, economic, regulatory, and technological constraints. We
then overlay demand scenarios to estimate future food production from the
sea. We find that under estimated demand shifts and supply scenarios that
account for policy reform and technology improvements, edible food from
the sea could increase by 21-44 million metric tons (mmt) (36-75% more
than today). This represents 12-25% of the estimated increase in all meat
needed to feed 9.8 billion people by 2050. Increases in all three sectors
are likely, but are most pronounced for mariculture. While even more
dramatic supply expansion is technically possible, the ultimate future of
food from the sea will hinge on policy reforms, technological innovation,
and the extent of future shifts in demand.