Trends and forecasts of colorectal cancer disease burden changes in China's 50-74 age group from 1990 to 2021 based on GBD 2021 analysis

Objective Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 data, we analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) among people aged 50-74 years in China from 1990 to 2021, and predict the development trend from 2021 to 2051, so as to provide a scientific basis for optimizing prevention and control strategies.Methods The incidence, prevalence, death and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CRC in China from the GBD 2021 database were extracted, stratified by sex and age (50-74 years, 5-year intervals). A Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend changes from 1990 to 2021, and an autoregressive integral sliding average model (ARIMA) was used to predict the burden of disease in the next 30 years.Results Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and prevalence rate (ASPR) increased by 1.75/100 000 and 3.17/100 000, respectively, from 1990-2021, with a significantly higher increase in men than in women (ASIR: 2.32/100 000 vs. 0.86100 000; ASPR: 3.76/100 000 vs. 2.29/100 000). Death (ASDR) and DALY rates (AS-DALYR) declined marginally (-0.49/100 000 and -0.62/100 000), with a more significant improvement in women (ASDR declined 13.8 times as much as in men); the standardized prevalence rate is projected to increase by 125.98/100 000 in men (74.16/100 000 in women) by 2051, with a significantly higher average annual rate of increase in incidence (0.62/100 000) than in women ( 0.24/100 000).Conclusion The burden of CRC disease in China has been on the rise, with men and the elderly at high risk, which is closely related to the aging of the population, the westernization of lifestyles, and the popularization of screening. In the future, it is necessary to strengthen primary prevention in the male population, optimize screening strategies, and pay attention to the trend of increasing mortality in women after 2015.