The top-ranked set of ordinal regression models relating leaf damage of <i>A. hippocastanum</i> with the number of years that <i>C. ohridella</i> was predicted to have been present.

Models are ordered by relative model fit (ΔAIC) and only those with ΔAIC<10 are shown here. The form of the relationship of years present with leaf damage. The segmented regression models show a linear or log-linear relationship up to the break-point, after which the relationship is constant. All the top-ranked regression models were based on the modeled distribution of C. ohridella, assuming either 2 or 3 generations per year. Regression models including the directly observed year of arrival were included in the candidate model set, but all had ΔAIC>10.7, so are not shown here.