COVID-19 epidemic in Fiji

This study involves the estimation of a key epidemiological parameter for
evaluating and monitoring the transmissibility of a disease. The
time-varying reproduction number is the index for quantifying the
transmissibility of infectious diseases. Accurate and timely estimation of
the time-varying reproduction number is essential for optimising
non-pharmacological interventions and movement control orders during
epidemics. The time-varying reproduction number for the second wave of the
pandemic in Fiji is estimated using the popular EpiEstim R package and the
publicly available COVID-19 data from 19 April 2021 to 01 December 2021.
Our findings show that the non-pharmacological interventions and movement
control orders introduced and enforced by the Fijian Government had a
significant impact in preventing the spread of COVID-19. Moreover, the
results show that many restrictions were either relaxed or eased when the
time-varying reproduction number was below the threshold value of 1. The
results have equipped some information on the second wave of the COVID-19
pandemic that could be used in the future as a guide for public health
policymakers in Fiji. Estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers
would be helpful for continuous monitoring of the effectiveness of the
current public health policies that are being implemented in Fiji.