Major Source of Error in QSPR Prediction of Intrinsic Thermodynamic Solubility of Drugs: Solid vs Nonsolid State Contributions?

The main purpose of this study is to define the major limiting factor in the accuracy of the quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) models of the thermodynamic intrinsic aqueous solubility of the drug-like compounds. For doing this, the thermodynamic intrinsic aqueous solubility property was suggested to be indirectly “measured” from the contributions of solid state, ΔGfus, and nonsolid state, ΔGmix, properties, which are estimated by the corresponding QSPR models. The QSPR models of ΔGfus and ΔGmix properties were built based on a set of drug-like compounds with available accurate measurements of fusion and thermodynamic solubility properties. For consistency ΔGfus and ΔGmix models were developed using similar algorithms and descriptor sets, and validated against the similar test compounds. Analysis of the relative performances of these two QSPR models clearly demonstrates that it is the solid state contribution which is the limiting factor in the accuracy and predictive power of the QSPR models of the thermodynamic intrinsic solubility. The performed analysis outlines a necessity of development of new descriptor sets for an accurate description of the long-range order (periodicity) phenomenon in the crystalline state. The proposed approach to the analysis of limitations and suggestions for improvement of QSPR-type models may be generalized to other applications in the pharmaceutical industry.