CLIMAAXKòrsou Phase 2 — D2 Refined Climate Risk Assessment for Curaçao

Climate risk assessment for Curaçao (Caribbean Netherlands) under the EU Horizon Europe CLIMAAX framework. Phase 2 integrates local data sources to refine four hazard assessments at 10m spatial resolution across 315 CBS neighbourhoods (154,640 population). Hazards assessed: Coastal Flooding — bathtub inundation model using IPCC AR6 sea level rise projections (14–88 cm, 18 scenarios: 3 SSP × 2 horizons × 3 percentiles), with building-level exposure from 103,117 Microsoft building footprints and 2,988 OSM points of interest; Pluvial Flooding — Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 3Di hydraulic model baseline using 32-year IDF curves (+30% extreme rainfall intensity under SSP5-8.5 2100); Heat Stress — calibrated air temperature baseline via satellite-station fusion (PCA of 13-year Landsat stack + wind speed regression, R²=0.70), replacing raw LST (R²=0.009); Drought — precipitation decline projections (up to −31%) with vegetation exposure from DCBD polygons and desalination context. Key features: risk density metric (people at risk per km²) consistent across all hazards; severity threshold exposure (>25 cm, >50 cm, >1 m); fan chart projections with CMIP6 P10–P90 uncertainty envelopes; 68,148 Kadaster property parcels for exposure; reproducible Quarto workflows writing to PostgreSQL with portal views for web integration. Conducted by the Meteorological Department Curaçao (MDC). Funded by the EU Horizon Europe Programme under CLIMAAX (Grant Agreement No. 101093864).