Estimating the demand for natural gas in the MENA region

This paper focuses on the MENA hydrocarbon-producing countries in the GCC and North Africa. We use annual data from 8 MENA region countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and the UAE from 1990 to 2022. In cases where data is missing for select natural gas and commodity price, the missing values are estimated using simple interpolation methods. The country-specific natural gas demand data is sourced from the International Energy Agency (IAE) and reported in bcm. Population data is taken from the IMF and reported in Millions of people. The income-related data are sourced from the UN database. Natural gas and electricity prices are collected using various sources including IEA, OAPEC, IMF and other papers reporting prices (Amansih, 2017); Shebanah et al. (2020). Diesel prices are based on IEA data. Natural gas, diesel, and electricity prices are reported in constant dollars and calculated using the GDP deflator sourced from the World Bank. In the case of Egypt and Oman real prices, missing values for gas and electricity prices before 2003 are estimated by backwards extrapolation using regional averages. The matlab code used for the analysis is also provided.本文聚焦海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会（Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC）与北非地区的中东和北非（Middle East and North Africa, MENA）产油气国家。本文使用1990年至2022年间8个MENA地区国家的年度数据，分别为阿尔及利亚、巴林、埃及、沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、阿曼、科威特及阿拉伯联合酋长国（阿联酋）。针对部分天然气与大宗商品价格缺失的情况，本文采用简单插值法对缺失值进行估算。分国别天然气需求数据来源于国际能源署（International Energy Agency, IAE），单位为十亿立方米（billion cubic meters, bcm）。人口数据取自国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund, IMF），单位为百万人口。收入相关数据来源于联合国（United Nations, UN）数据库。天然气与电力价格的数据来源涵盖国际能源署（IAE）、阿拉伯石油输出国组织（Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, OAPEC）、国际货币基金组织（IMF）以及其他发布价格数据的文献（Amansih, 2017; Shebanah et al., 2020）。柴油价格数据基于国际能源署（IAE）的相关资料。天然气、柴油及电力价格均以不变价美元计价，其折算基于世界银行（World Bank）发布的GDP平减指数。针对埃及与阿曼的实际价格，2003年之前缺失的天然气及电力价格数据采用区域平均值进行反向外推估算。本文同时附上本次分析所使用的MATLAB代码。