MetaSqueeze: A spatially-explicit metapopulation model for Banksia hookeriana in south-west Australia

Climate change, with warming and drying weather conditions, is reducing the growth, seed production, and survival of fire-adapted plants in fire-prone regions such as Mediterranean-type ecosystems. These effects of climate change on local plant demographics have recently been shown to reduce the persistence time of local populations of the fire-killed shrub Banksia hookeriana dramatically. In principle, extinctions of local populations may be partly compensated by recolonization events through long-distance dispersal mechanisms of seeds, such as post-fire wind and bird-mediated dispersal, facilitating persistence in spatially structured metapopulations. However, to what degree and under which assumptions metapopulation dynamics might compensate for the drastically increased local extinction risk remains to be explored. Given the long timespans involved and the complexity of interwoven local and regional processes, mechanistic, process-based models are one of the most suitable approaches..., , , # MetaSqueeze: A spatially-explicit metapopulation model for *Banksia hookeriana* in south-west Australia MetaSqueeze is a mechanistic, process-based, spatially explicit metapopulation model developed to investigate the dynamics of metapopulations under the influence of climate change. This model specifically focuses on the fire-killed, serotinous shrub *Banksia hookeriana*, studying its response to varying fire regimes and climatic conditions. **Reference:** Souto-Veiga, R., Groeneveld, J., Enright, N. J., Fontaine, J. B., & Jeltsch, F. (2024). Climate change may shift metapopulations towards unstable source-sink dynamics in a fire-killed, serotinous shrub. *Ecology and Evolution, 14*, e11488. [https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.11488](https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.11488) Corresponding Author: Rodrigo Souto-Veiga Email: [[e-mail]](mailto:[e-mail]) ORCID: [0000-0001-8639-620X](https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8639-620X) ## Requirements Th...气候变化伴随暖化与干旱化趋势，正抑制火适应型植物（fire-adapted plants）在火频发区域（如地中海型生态系统）的生长、种子生产与存活能力。近期研究证实，气候变化对本地植物种群动态的上述影响，会显著缩短火致死灌木班克木（Banksia hookeriana）本地种群的存续时长。原则上，本地种群的灭绝可通过种子长距离扩散机制引发的再定植事件得到部分补偿，这类扩散机制包括火后风力扩散、鸟类介导扩散，可助力空间结构化集合种群（metapopulation）的存续。然而，集合种群动态可在多大程度上、在何种假设条件下弥补大幅升高的本地灭绝风险，仍有待探索。鉴于所涉时间跨度较长，且本地与区域过程相互交织、复杂度极高，基于机理的过程模型是最适宜的研究手段之一…… # MetaSqueeze：澳大利亚西南部班克木（Banksia hookeriana）空间显式集合种群模型 MetaSqueeze是一款基于机理、过程导向的空间显式集合种群模型，旨在探究气候变化影响下的集合种群动态。该模型专门针对火致死型闭果（serotinous）灌木班克木（Banksia hookeriana），研究其对不同火制度（fire regime）与气候条件的响应。 **参考文献：** Souto-Veiga, R., Groeneveld, J., Enright, N. J., Fontaine, J. B., & Jeltsch, F. (2024). 气候变化或使火致死型闭果灌木的集合种群转向不稳定源汇动态。*生态学与进化*，14卷，e11488。[https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.11488] **通讯作者：** Rodrigo Souto-Veiga 电子邮箱：[[e-mail]](mailto:[e-mail]) ORCID标识符：[0000-0001-8639-620X](https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8639-620X)