Replication data for: The Peacekeeping–Peacemaking Dilemma

Peacekeeping has become an increasingly prominent tool for conflict management and there has been an accompanying explosion of scholarly studies on peacekeeping. Yet, such analyses typically ignore the process of getting a peace agreement itself, missing the potential impact that a peacekeeping force might have in facilitating a peace agreement between protagonists. In this paper, we explore among both enduring rivalries and civil wars whether the presence of a peacekeeping force enhances the prospects for gaining an agreement between protagonists. The academic literature suggests opposing logics: one suggesting the desirability of peacekeeping forces while the other implies that they may be counterproductive. We consider whether the presence of peacekeeping enhances or inhibits mediation and negotiation attempts. We also explore whether the success rates for international mediation and negotiation efforts in those conflicts are affected by the presence of peacekeeping forces. Our results suggest support for the pessimistic view of peacekeeping as it discourages diplomatic efforts and decreases the likelihood of achieving a settlement, although the results are clearer for interstate conflict than for civil wars.维和行动（Peacekeeping）已日益成为冲突管控的核心手段之一，与之相伴的是维和研究领域学术成果的爆发式增长。然而，此类分析往往忽略了和平协定本身的缔结过程，未能考量维和部队在推动冲突当事方达成和平协定方面的潜在作用。本文针对长期对峙冲突与内战两类场景展开研究，探讨维和部队的存在是否能够提升冲突当事方达成和平协定的可能性。现有学术文献存在两种对立的逻辑框架：一种观点肯定维和部队的积极价值，另一种则认为其可能产生适得其反的效果。本文旨在厘清维和部队的存在究竟会促进还是阻碍调停与谈判进程，同时探究上述冲突中的国际调停与谈判行动成功率是否会受到维和部队存在的影响。研究结果支持对维和行动的悲观视角：维和部队会抑制外交努力、降低达成和解的可能性，不过该结论在国家间冲突场景中的体现要比内战场景更为明确。