Pearson correlation tests for environmental variables, Student t-test for range shift and comparisons for habitat loss in 2070

Habitat loss and shifts associated with climate change threaten global
biodiversity, with impacts likely to be most pronounced at high latitudes.
With the disappearance of the tundra breeding habitats, migratory
shorebirds that breed at these high latitudes are likely to be even more
vulnerable to climate change than those in temperate regions. We examined
this idea using new distributional information on two subspecies of
Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa in Asia: the northerly, bog-breeding L.
l. bohaii and the more southerly, steppe-breeding L. l. melanuroides.
Based on breeding locations of tagged and molecularly assayed birds, we
modelled the current breeding distributions of the two subspecies with
species distribution models, tested those models for robustness, and then
used them to predict climatically suitable breeding ranges in 2070
according to bioclimatic variables and different climate change scenarios.
Our models were robust and showed that climate change is expected to push
bohaii into the northern rim of the Eurasian continent. Melanuroides is
also expected to shift northward, stopping in the Yablonovyy and Stanovoy
Ranges, and breeding elevation is expected to increase. Climatically
suitable breeding habitat ranges would shrink to 16% and 11% of the
currently estimated ranges of bohaii and melanuroides, respectively.
Overall, this study provides the first predictions for the future
distributions of two little-known Black-tailed Godwit subspecies and
highlights the importance of factoring in shifts in bird distribution when
designing climate-proof conservation strategies.