Data for: Civil war and U.S. foreign influence

Abstract of associated article: We study how foreign interventions affect civil war around the world. In an infinitely repeated game we combine a gambling for resurrection mechanism for the influencing country with the canonical bargaining model of war in the influenced country to micro-found sudden shifts in power among the domestic bargaining partners, which are known to lead to war due to commitment problems. We test two of our model predictions that allow us to identify the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with the U.S. presidential approval rates. These results withstand several robustness checks and, overall, suggest that foreign influence is a sizable driver of domestic conflict.相关研究论文摘要：本研究探讨全球范围内外国干预对内战的影响。我们在无限重复博弈（infinitely repeated game）框架下，将干预国的政治赌命机制（gambling for resurrection mechanism）与受干预国的经典战争讨价还价模型相结合，为国内谈判方之间的权力陡然变动构建微观基础——此类权力变动因承诺问题（commitment problems）而被证实会引发战争。本研究对模型的两项核心预测开展检验，以此识别外国干预对内战发生率的影响：其一，全球范围内共和党执政时期更易爆发内战；其二，内战爆发概率随美国总统支持率的提升而降低。上述结果通过了多项稳健性检验，整体表明外国干预是国内冲突的重要驱动因素。