Replication Data for: If They Endorse It, I Can't Trust It: How Outgroup Leader Endorsements Undercut Public Support for Civil War Peace Settlements

Civil wars are a greater source of violence than any other type of conflict, yet little is known about one of the key determinants of civil war peace settlement success: civilian support. We evaluate how a core component of nearly all peace settlements, leader endorsements, affect public support. We predict that individuals in conflict settings will view settlements endorsed by out-group leaders as less trustworthy and that they will become less supportive. We conduct an endorsement experiment with nearly 1,000 respondents in South Sudan in 2016, taking advantage of a brief cessation in a devastating civil war. Public support for a tentative settlement drops precipitously when it is endorsed by an out-group leader but does not increase when it is endorsed by an in-group leader. We find suggestive evidence that effects are strongest for individuals with the greatest reason to fear out-group leaders: those whose communities were targeted most violently by that out-group.