Replication Data for: If They Endorse It, I Can't Trust It: How Outgroup Leader Endorsements Undercut Public Support for Civil War Peace Settlements

Civil wars are a greater source of violence than any other type of conflict, yet little is known about one of the key determinants of civil war peace settlement success: civilian support. We evaluate how a core component of nearly all peace settlements, leader endorsements, affect public support. We predict that individuals in conflict settings will view settlements endorsed by out-group leaders as less trustworthy and that they will become less supportive. We conduct an endorsement experiment with nearly 1,000 respondents in South Sudan in 2016, taking advantage of a brief cessation in a devastating civil war. Public support for a tentative settlement drops precipitously when it is endorsed by an out-group leader but does not increase when it is endorsed by an in-group leader. We find suggestive evidence that effects are strongest for individuals with the greatest reason to fear out-group leaders: those whose communities were targeted most violently by that out-group.内战是各类冲突中暴力事件的主要源头，然而学界对内战和平协议成功的关键决定因素之一——民众支持——的认知仍较为匮乏。本研究旨在探讨几乎所有和平协议均包含的核心要素：领导人背书，对民众支持度的影响。我们假设，冲突环境中的个体将认为由外群体（out-group）领导人背书的和平协议可信度更低，进而对协议的支持意愿也会下降。2016年，我们借助毁灭性内战短暂停火的契机，在南苏丹开展了一项背书实验，共招募近千名受访者参与。实验结果显示，当暂定和平协议由外群体领导人背书时，民众对其支持率会急剧下滑；但若由内群体（in-group）领导人背书，则支持率并无显著提升。我们还发现了具有提示性的证据：那些最有理由恐惧外群体领导人的个体——即其所在社区曾遭到该外群体最残酷暴力袭击的人群——所受的背书效应最为显著。