How do plant ecologists use matrix models?

In the past three decades, the role of matrix-based demographic models in plant conservation has steadily increased. However, the reliability of these methods remains hotly debated. Most tests of model performance have relied on strict conditions for either the data sets being tested or the criteria used to judge accuracy of the results. This leads to a potential disconnect between the variety of ways in which models are used in practice and the limited set of conditions where their performance has been evaluated. As part of our working group, we set out to introduce and apply the idea that relevant tests depend on how exactly matrix models are used for managing populations. To this end, we systematically assessed 397 matrix models for plant populations to determine which population metrics (e.g. population growth rate, sensitivity, extinction risk) are being most commonly used in the literature and how literally authors are interpreting these metrics as predictions. The data sets available here contain both the citation information for all of the plant studies that we identified and the results of our review (see Crone et al., In Review, Ecology Letters). We have attempted to provide a nearly complete census of the available literature from 1966 through April 2009.近三十年来，基于矩阵的人口统计模型（matrix-based demographic models）在植物保护领域的作用持续提升。然而，这类方法的可靠性仍存在激烈争议。绝大多数模型性能测试均对受试数据集或结果准确性的评判标准设置了严格限定条件，这可能导致模型实际应用场景的多样性与其性能评估所依托的有限条件之间出现脱节。作为本工作组的研究内容之一，我们着手引入并践行这一理念：相关测试的设计需取决于矩阵模型在种群管理中的具体应用方式。为此，我们系统评估了397个植物种群的矩阵模型，以明确当前学术文献中最常用的种群指标（如种群增长率、敏感性、灭绝风险），以及作者将这些指标作为预测结果时的解读严谨程度。本数据集涵盖了我们检索到的所有植物相关研究的引用信息，以及本次综述的研究成果（详见Crone等人，待刊，《Ecology Letters》）。我们已尽力覆盖1966年至2009年4月期间的所有相关文献，力求实现近乎全面的文献普查。