Tests of the Market's Reaction to Federal Funds Rate Target Changes

This research tests several hypotheses about the market's reactions to changes in the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate target and finds that short-term rates and long-term rates responded differently to funds rate target changes when target changes were accompanied by a change in the discount rate. It is shown that the smaller response of long-term rates (in these instances) is due to the market's revising its inflation outlook when the target is changed. No evidence that the size of the market's response varies with the size of the target changes is found, but the response to target changes is somewhat larger when the target change is the first change in a new direction. It should be noted that some of the results are based on a very small number of target changes.