Replication Dataset - for the paper "Export Market Size Matters" [published in International Economic Journal, 2024]

Literature contends that the manufacturing sector is crucial for economic development, and it is conventional wisdom that exports drive manufacturing growth. However, it has yet to be established empirically whether the market size of export destinations is an essential factor in explaining diverging regional and sectoral manufacturing growth patterns. This article argues that accessing a few large external markets reduces entry costs, increases expectations of economies of scale, and fosters capital formation. To test this hypothesis, we construct a novel Relative Export Market Size (REMS) index that measures whether the share of sectoral exports destined to large economies in one region is higher than in other regions. Using a PVAR model with fixed effects, we verify the impact of the REMS index on value added, employment, and capital accumulation of 129 manufacturing sectors in 23 regions in Colombia from 1992-2017. The obtained results show that exporting to larger markets positively impacts employment, capital formation, and value added per capita of manufacturing sectors at a regional level. This finding indicates that exporting to the world’s largest market helps develop competitive manufacturing sectors.现有研究表明，制造业对经济发展至关重要，而出口拉动制造业增长已是学界共识。然而，出口目的地的市场规模是否为解释区域间与行业间制造业增长分化态势的关键因素，目前尚未通过实证研究得到证实。本文提出，布局少数大型海外市场可降低出口进入成本、强化规模经济预期，并促进资本形成。为验证该假说，本文构建了全新的相对出口市场规模（Relative Export Market Size, REMS）指数，用以衡量某一区域内面向大型经济体的行业出口占比是否高于其他区域。本文采用1992至2017年哥伦比亚23个区域的129个制造业行业面板数据，结合带固定效应的面板向量自回归（Panel Vector Autoregression, PVAR）模型，实证检验了REMS指数对行业增加值、就业水平与资本积累的影响。结果显示，向大型市场出口对区域层面制造业的就业水平、资本形成与人均增加值均存在显著正向影响。这一结论表明，面向全球大型市场开展出口业务，有助于培育具备国际竞争力的制造业行业。