Assessing the Employment Effects of State-Level Minimum Wage Increases in U.S. Low-Wage Industries, 2010–2018

The federal minimum wage in the United States has remained static since its last change in 2009. Due to stagnation at the federal level, states have moved to implement state-level wage increases to keep up with rising living costs and labor market conditions. This thesis investigates the short-run labor market effects of these increases in the United States from 2010 to 2018, focusing on low-wage industries. Through a staggered difference-in-differences (DiD) framework, the analysis shows how minimum wage hikes of at least $0.50 affected the employment-population ratio, labor force participation rate, and unemployment rate. This study adds to the growing literature suggesting that minimum wage increases during the 2010s had limited negative effects on employment outcomes.美国联邦最低工资自2009年最后一次调整以来始终维持不变。由于联邦层面的最低工资标准长期停滞，美国各州已陆续推出州级最低工资上调政策，以适配不断攀升的生活成本与劳动力市场形势。本论文考察了2010至2018年间美国此类最低工资上调的短期劳动力市场效应，重点聚焦低薪行业。通过渐进双重差分（staggered difference-in-differences, DiD）分析框架，本研究揭示了单次上调幅度不低于0.5美元的最低工资政策对就业-人口比率、劳动力参与率以及失业率的影响。本研究为近年来日益增多的相关学术文献补充了新证据，表明2010年代的最低工资上调对就业结果仅存在有限的负面影响。