Simulated and constrained ocean carbon sink from 1850 to 2100 based on CMIP6 models

The global ocean carbon sink and its future evolution are crucial for understanding and quantifying climate change. State-of-the-art estimates of the future carbon sink are provided by earth system models. However, the estimates of the carbon sink are uncertain due to biases in the simulation of the ocean overturning circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. To account for biases in the simulated ocean carbon sink, we used an 3-D emergent constraint that corrects the simulated ocean carbon sink for biases in the mode and intermediate water formation in the Southern Ocean, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, as well as for biases in the surface ocean carbonate chemistry (Terhaar et al., 2022). Here, we present the raw simulated annual and cumulative global ocean carbon sink estimates for four future scenarios from CMIP6, as well as the constrained estimates of the annual cumulative global ocean carbon sink from 1850 to 2100. In addition, we provide the timeseries with an adjustment for the late-starting date of CMIP6 models.