Current and future habitat suitability of Northern fur seals and overlap with the commercial walleye pollock fishery in the Eastern Bering Sea

Understanding the abiotic and biotic drivers of species distribution is critical for climate-informed ecosystem management. We aimed to understand habitat selection of Northern fur sealsin the Eastern Bering Sea, a declining population that is also a key predator of walleye pollock, the target species for the largest U.S. commercial fishery. We developed species distribution models using random forest models by combining satellite telemetry data from lactating female fur seals tagged at different rookery complexes on the Pribilof Islands in the Eastern Bering Sea with regional ocean model simulations. We exploredhow data aggregation at two spatial scales (Pribilof-wide and complex-specific) impacted modelperformance and predicted distributions. Spatial predictions under hindcasted (1992 - 2018) and projected (2050 - 2059) physical and biological conditions were used to identify areas of core habitat, overlap with commercial fishery catches, and potential changes in future habitat suitab..., Lactating adult female Northern fur seals from St. Paul (57.19º N, 170.25º W) and St. George Islands (56.60º N, 169.55º W) Alaska, USA were instrumented with satellite tags between 1992 and 2018. Tags remained on females for 1 - 14 foraging trips. Satellite telemetry data were analysed using a continuous-time correlated random walk model to generate hourly predicted locations for each trip. Pseudo-absences were generated using a first-order vector-autoregressive model that resulted in 100 simulated trips that mimicked the speed and duration of each original trip. Environmental data from a regional ocean simulation model for the Bering Sea were extracted at each presence and pseudo-absence, including bathymetry and dynamic physical (e.g., bottom temperature) and biological (e.g., phytoplankton biomass) variables. Absences and pseudo-absences were classified to a habitat type based on bathymetry (continental shelf or basin) and datasets were subsequently split by habitat type. Hourly loca..., , # Current and future habitat suitability of Northern fur seals and overlap with the commercial walleye pollock fishery in the Eastern Bering Sea

[https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.d51c5b0cd](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.d51c5b0cd)

## Description of the data and file structure

Northern fur seal data were generated from satellite tagging efforts of adult females between 1992 and 2018. Environmental variables were derived from regional ocean model simulations ([https://github.com/beringnpz/roms-bering-sea).](https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/github.com/beringnpz/roms-bering-sea__;!!K-Hz7m0Vt54!g5NeitFAV_3QDabHdExrYtaYhlevqpopPTOov174OwYIPH-cJpZJ9_HmICr43-YwHDcG6cXcynw8SZbFmUOAtNGF$)Data are provided in a zip file that contains data in both an excel and R data file, where each row corresponds to a single location (either a presence or an absence) with associated values of environmental variables at that location.

### Files and variables

#### File: McHuron et al\_Northern\_fur\_seal\_habi...,