Replication Data for: Who Controls the Past: Endogenous Status Quo and Change in International Regimes

How do international regimes change over time? Regimes facilitate cooperation by linking together otherwise ad-hoc negotiations. These linkages endogenize the status quo from which subsequent negotiations depart. I develop a theory of endogenous status quo within international regimes: prior outcomes implicitly define the status quo of new negotiations by acting as focal points and by creating inconsistency costs. I test observable implications of the theory in the context of the multilateral trade regime, focusing on new member accession negotiations. These negotiations attract interest from a surprising subset of WTO members, many with few observable trade ties or other economic incentives to participate. Nonetheless participation enables states to shape the emergent status quo strategically, with potentially far-reaching implications for future bargaining. I employ a text-as-data approach - together with a novel corpus of negotiating documents - finding consistent support for the theory and mechanisms.国际机制（international regimes）如何随时间演进？国际机制通过串联原本零散的临时谈判，推动合作进程。此类联动将后续谈判所依托的现状予以内生化处理。本文构建了一套国际机制框架下的内生现状理论：既往谈判结果可通过充当焦点锚点，以及制造不一致成本两种路径，隐性定义新谈判的现状基准。本文以多边贸易体制（multilateral trade regime）为研究场景，聚焦新成员加入谈判环节，对该理论的可观测推论展开实证检验。此类谈判吸引了为数不少的世界贸易组织（World Trade Organization, WTO）成员的参与兴趣，其中多数成员仅具备极少量可观测的贸易关联或其他参与谈判的经济激励。尽管如此，参与谈判仍可使各国得以战略性塑造新兴现状，这对未来的议价谈判或具备深远影响。本文采用文本即数据（text-as-data）的研究范式，结合一套全新的谈判文档语料库，最终得到了与该理论及其作用机制相一致的实证支持。