Wolf predation on white-tailed deer before, during, and after a historically-mild winter in northern Minnesota

In many southern boreal ecosystems of North America, wolves are the primary predator of white-tailed deer and white-tailed deer the primary prey of wolves. Further, wolf-deer systems have, and will continue to become more common as white-tailed deer range continues expanding northward in North America. Despite this, there is little information on kill rates of wolves on deer (i.e., the number of deer killed per wolf per unit of time)—a fundamental metric of wolf predation on deer—and how kill rates vary with deer density, wolf density, and environmental conditions. We estimated kill rates of wolves on deer before, during, and after a historically-mild winter in the Greater Voyageurs Ecosystem, Minnesota, USA. Kill rates of wolves on deer were low (0.009-0.018 deer/wolf/day) in fall, peaked in February (0.050 deer/wolf/day), and quickly declined to 0 deer/wolf/day by April. The kill rates of wolves on deer we observed in winter were some of the lowest kill rates of wolves on deer that have been documented. Wolves in the Greater Voyageurs Ecosystem appeared unable to catch and kill a sufficient number of deer to meet their daily energetic requirements during Winter 2023-2024, and thus most wolves likely lost weight during winter, a period when wolves are typically in peak physical condition. The rates of wolf predation we observed appeared to be well below those needed to decrease deer population density in the GVE. Thus, our work, in combination with numerous other studies, indicates winter conditions are the primary driver of deer population change in northern climates.